30-Year Mortgage Rate (Freddie Mac PMMS)

6.53% ↑ 2 bps (but the back half tells a different story)

Daily rate now (MND)

6.61% lowest level in 2 weeks

What that means on a $400K loan (P&I)

~$2,536/mo ↓ ~$96/mo vs. a year ago ($1,147/yr)

10-Year Treasury (CNBC)

4.47% ↓ 23 bps from May 20 peak on Iran de-escalation

Pending home sales (NAR)

3 months up Feb, March, April — "latent demand," per Khater

⚠️ Next big rate mover: May Jobs Report — Friday June 5 at 8:30 AM ET

Hot print = rate hike talk comes back. Soft print = the bond rally continues. ISM Manufacturing Monday, ADP Wednesday, jobless claims Thursday.

Source: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), week ending 5/28/2026. Daily rate from Mortgage News Daily. Pending sales data from the National Association of REALTORS® April 2026 Pending Home Sales Report. Treasury data from CNBC. Rates shown are national averages for a conforming 30-year fixed-rate mortgage and do not represent a personal rate quote or offer to lend. Payment example assumes a $400,000 loan amount, 30-year fixed term, 20% down payment, and does not include taxes, insurance, or PMI. Your actual rate, payment, and costs may vary based on your financial profile. Rate ≠ APR. Not all applicants will qualify.

"Pending home sales have increased three months in a row, indicating there's latent demand and homebuyers are ready to jump back into the market if mortgage rates decline."

What to Say to a Buyer (story-connect)

"[Name], I had a client message me Tuesday saying he wanted to wait. I called him Thursday morning because rates had already moved back down. We refreshed his pre-approval that afternoon and he's writing on a house tomorrow. I'm not telling you that to brag. I'm telling you because the same thing is true for you. Pending sales nationally are up 3 months in a row. The buyers writing those contracts aren't sitting on the sidelines waiting for someone to give them permission. Your kids are either out of school already or about to be. If you want to be in your next place before the new school year, the work starts this weekend, not in July. Can we get on the phone Saturday?"

What to Say to a Seller (SOI/community)

"[Name], I want to share something I'm watching closely right now. Pending home sales have gone up three months in a row. The most aggressive buyers in our market are families with school-age kids, and they all want the same thing: to be moved in before August. Which means the next six weeks are the hottest window of the year for a well-positioned listing. Aggressively-priced, photo-ready homes are getting multiple offers in days. The ones that drift out of the gate are sitting until October. I take homes to market in a way that wins in tight windows like this one. Want me to walk through your house this week and show you exactly how I'd position it?"

[name], kids are either out of school or about to be. If you want to be moved in before the new school year, we're at the start of the window, not the end. Rates actually softened the back half of this week too. Saturday coffee to map it out?

[name], one number worth knowing. Signed home contracts are up 3 months in a row nationally. Quiet pickup, no fanfare. The active buyers are moving while everyone else assumes the market is dead. Want a 10-min call to see if the math works for you right now?

[name], the hottest 6 weeks of the year for sellers starts now. School-year families want to be settled before August, and pending sales are climbing. Priced right + photo-ready = multiple offers in days. Want me to walk through and tell you exactly what your house would do this summer?

[name], the back half of this week was actually good news on rates. 10-year Treasury dropped 23 basis points. Pending sales up 3 straight months. If a move-up has crossed your mind, this is the window where the math suddenly looks better than it has in a while. Quick equity check this week?

1. Same house, smaller payment. That's the easy sell.

A buyer who locked in their pre-approval at 6.70% can refresh today at the current daily rate and save real money each month on the same purchase. It's not life-changing money, but it's $40 to $50 a month they get to keep on a typical loan. Over 5 years, that's a vacation. Easy text. "Hey, rates moved. Want to know what your monthly payment looks like today vs. three weeks ago?"

2. Same payment, more house. That's the move agents miss.

Here's the move agents don't think about. If your buyer keeps their target monthly payment the same, the lower rate buys them more home. Roughly $7,000 more home in this rate move, depending on the loan size. That's a different neighborhood. That's a third bedroom. That's a fenced yard. Reframe the conversation from "save money" to "afford the house you actually wanted."

3. School ending = the summer pipeline trigger.

School is ending. Already done in Florida. Days away in the Carolinas. The rest of the country lets out by mid-June. Families with school-age kids are the most predictable buyer segment in the market because they want to be moved in before the new school year. That's June and July, not September. Open your CRM. Filter for anyone with school-age kids. Anyone who's been "thinking about a bigger place" or "in a starter and growing out of it" needs to hear from you this weekend. Not next month.

Quick question for families with kids.

School is ending. If your plan is to be settled in a new place before fall, the work starts now. Not in July. Not "once things calm down." This weekend.

Here's what nobody's telling you. Pending home sales are up 3 months in a row nationally. Rates softened in the back half of this week. The next six weeks are the hottest window of the year for families with school-age kids, because everyone wants the same thing you do: kids in the new school on day one.

If you've been kicking around the idea of a move, message me. I'll tell you straight whether the math actually works for your situation, and what the timeline looks like if it does.

The summer move-up window doesn't wait. Neither should you.

Market Update — May 29, 2026

Two real updates this week. First, signed home contracts have now risen for three straight months nationally. That's actual deals, not predictions. The National Association of Realtors called it "latent demand," which is a fancy way of saying buyers are out there and ready to move.

Second, mortgage rates softened in the back half of this week. The 10-year Treasury, which mortgage rates track, dropped sharply on news of progress in U.S.-Iran peace talks. Daily mortgage rates are now at their lowest level in two weeks. Compared to a year ago, the typical buyer is paying about $96 less per month on a $400K loan. That's around $1,150 a year.

If you have kids and you've been thinking about a move, the calendar is doing some of the work for you. School is ending, summer is the busiest window for families changing homes, and the homes priced right are getting multiple offers in days.

If you want to know whether the math actually works for your specific situation right now, hit reply. I'll connect you with my team for a quick look at the real numbers.

This is a general market overview based on national averages from the Freddie Mac PMMS® for the week ending 5/28/2026 and the NAR April 2026 Pending Home Sales Report. Not an offer to lend. Your actual rate and payment will depend on your individual financial profile. Cole Brantley, NMLS# 1905939. Mpire Financial, NMLS# 2108504. Equal Housing Lender.

🍽 Next Lunch & Leads

AI Basics for Real Estate Agents

Thursday, June 4 at 12 PM ET. Running it again by popular demand. We start from zero. By the end you'll have AI writing your client emails, market updates, and listing copy. Bring lunch. Free to join.

Grab Your Seat →

This week's question

"The 10-year Treasury yield dropped from its May 20 peak by a specific number of basis points this week as Iran de-escalation news broke. How many basis points?"

Text the answer to

(813) 579-8812

First 5 correct answers before 12:00 PM ET today win. One entry per agent.

1. Text me the intro

Three-way text works best: "Cole, this is [client]. They're looking at a [purchase/refi]. Can you take it from here?"

2. I reach out within an hour

Same-day call or text. No phone tag. No long forms before they hear from a human.

3. Free 15-minute consult

No commitment. They get real numbers, real options, and a clear next step. You get a buyer who's actually qualified.

4. You stay in the loop

Updates at every milestone. Pre-approval, contract, appraisal, clear-to-close. You never have to chase the file.

🧠 Weird Stat of the Week

There have been only 3 weeks since February 2026 where the 10-year Treasury moved more than 20 basis points. Two of those were panic moves up. This week was a 23-basis-point move down. That's the kind of move that resets a buyer's affordability math overnight. Most people will never know it happened because the headlines were busy talking about other things.