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📊 Every Friday at 6 AM
The Friday Rate Sheet
The rates + the scripts + the playbook. Every Friday.
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#17 · JUNE 19, 2026
Hawkish Fed. Peace deal. Six-week low on rates. Three storylines, one calm conversation your buyers need from you Monday.
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This Week's Numbers
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30-Year Mortgage Rate (Freddie Mac PMMS)
6.47% ↓ 5 bps, 6-week low
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Thursday close (MND)
6.58% recovered most of Wednesday's Fed spike
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What that means on a $400K loan (P&I)
~$2,520/mo ↓ ~$90/mo vs. a year ago ($1,080/yr)
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10-Year Treasury (CNBC)
4.45% rallied Thursday despite hawkish Fed
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Pending home sales (NAR, May release)
+3.8% MoM Khater: "purchase demand continuing to modestly improve"
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🚨 Markets closed today for Juneteenth. Next catalyst: PCE inflation Friday June 26.
PCE is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. It validates or pushes back on the dot plot's hawkish surprise. Existing home sales Monday, new home sales Tuesday.
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Source: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), week ending 6/18/2026. Daily rate from Mortgage News Daily. Treasury yield data from CNBC. Pending home sales data from the National Association of REALTORS® Pending Home Sales Index, May 2026. Rates shown are national averages for a conforming 30-year fixed-rate mortgage and do not represent a personal rate quote or offer to lend. Payment example assumes a $400,000 loan amount, 30-year fixed term, 20% down payment, and does not include taxes, insurance, or PMI. Your actual rate, payment, and costs may vary based on your financial profile. Rate ≠ APR. Not all applicants will qualify.
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👀 What The Data Actually Says
The Fed got hawkish. Rates fell anyway. Most of your clients only heard half the story.
If you only watched the headlines this week, here is what you took away. The Fed signaled they may have to RAISE rates this year. Nine of the eighteen members on the committee now project at least one hike before December. Inflation forecasts went up. That sounds like terrible news for mortgage rates.
Now here is what actually happened. The 30-year mortgage rate ended the week at 6.47%. That is the lowest level in six weeks. It is roughly 90 dollars a month lower than a year ago on a typical loan, or about 1,080 dollars over the course of a year that stays in your client's pocket.
Why did rates fall on a hawkish Fed? Because President Trump signed a preliminary U.S.-Iran agreement Wednesday afternoon to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and begin 60 days of talks toward a final deal. Oil prices eased. The 10-year Treasury, which is what actually drives mortgage rates, dropped to 4.45%. The Iran de-escalation mattered more to bond markets than the Fed's hawkish projections.
Sam Khater, Freddie Mac's chief economist, also had something to say. "Incoming data continues to reflect a resilient consumer, with retail sales improving and pending home sales strengthening, suggesting purchase demand is continuing to modestly improve." Pending home sales were up 3.8 percent in May. Existing home sales hit their highest level since December. The buyers are not waiting for permission.
Your job Monday is to be the person who connects the dots for your clients. Yes the Fed got hawkish. Yes rates fell. Yes both can be true at the same time. The agents who explain that calmly are the ones who get a phone call from a buyer who is finally ready.
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Your Scripts & Texts for This Week
Who to call this weekend, and what to actually say.
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🗣️ For Calls & Meetings
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Call: Families with kids out of school (story-connect)
"[Name], been thinking about you. The kids just got out, and I know we had talked about wanting to be settled before the new school year started. Here is what I want you to know. I have two clients who closed in the last 10 days that were in the exact same spot you are. They are sitting at the kitchen table with their boxes unpacked while everyone else is still waiting. I'm not telling you to rush. I am telling you the window to be moved in before August is open right now, and it gets tighter every week. Want to grab coffee Saturday and look at where you actually stand? No pressure either way."
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Call: Sellers thinking about this fall (acknowledge-reframe)
"[Name], I know we talked about maybe waiting until fall to list. I want to share something with you before you decide. The median sale price for U.S. homes hit an all-time record in May. Not asking. Selling. That is happening right now, in June, in this market. Historically the highest-price months of the year are May, June, and July. After that, prices usually flatten and buyer urgency cools off when school starts. If listing this fall was about timing the best price, the data is telling us the best price window is right now. I am not pushing. I am giving you the information. Want me to swing by next week and we can look at what your house would actually do if we listed in the next 30 days versus waiting until October?"
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📱 Copy-Paste Texts — Tap, Copy, Send
Text: Buyer with school-age kids · School Window Closing
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[name], the kids are officially out. Window to be moved in before the new school year is open, but it gets tighter every week. Want to grab 20 min this weekend to see where you actually stand? No pressure.
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Text: Past client or sphere thinking snowbird · Fall Positioning
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[name], if a winter place down here has been on your mind, July and August is when the smart buyers start looking. By the time the holidays hit the good ones are gone. Want me to send you a few worth keeping an eye on?
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Text: Seller waiting until fall · Summer Price Peak
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[name], quick note. May just set an all-time record for home sale prices nationally. Historically, June and July are the strongest pricing months of the year. If "wait until fall" was about getting more for the house, the data says the opposite right now. Want me to swing by and run the numbers?
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Text: 2022-2023 buyer · Move-Up Math
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[name], you have built real equity since you closed. Rates today are actually lower than what you locked in. If you have outgrown the place or it is just time, the move-up math works better right now than it has in a while. Want a quick look?
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🔨 The Playbook
Teach your A list how mortgage rates actually move. They don't know.
Here is something I see from the lender side that surprises agents every time. Most of your buyers genuinely think the Federal Reserve sets mortgage rates. They don't. The Fed sets the federal funds rate, which is what banks charge each other for overnight loans. Mortgage rates follow the 10-year Treasury, which moves on three different inputs: inflation expectations, geopolitics, and what investors think the Fed will do NEXT, not what they did today. This week was the perfect teaching example. The Fed got hawkish, mortgage rates fell, and the reason was the Iran deal. Once a buyer understands the mechanics, they stop panicking on Fed-day headlines forever. That is a 5-minute conversation that pays off in every future Fed cycle. Here is how to run it.
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Beat 1: Reset the wrong assumption.
"Quick thing most people get wrong about mortgage rates. The Fed doesn't actually set them. The Fed sets the rate banks charge each other overnight. Your mortgage rate follows the 10-year Treasury bond. That distinction matters because it explains why the news doesn't always match what's actually happening to rates."
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Beat 2: Use this week as the example.
"This week was textbook. Fed signaled Wednesday they might raise rates this year, which is the headline you saw. But the same afternoon, the U.S. signed a preliminary peace deal with Iran. The bond market cared more about the Iran news than the Fed news, so the 10-year Treasury actually FELL, and mortgage rates ended the week at a six-week low. Two stories, opposite directions, both true."
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⭐ Pro tip
If a client wants to go deeper on the mechanics, send them a one-liner that lands. "Mortgage rates follow the bond market, not the Fed directly. When you see a Fed headline, ask one question: what's the 10-year Treasury doing? That's the answer." Most buyers never get that explained to them. The agent who teaches them earns trust that lasts through every Fed announcement for the rest of the relationship.
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Beat 3: Bring it back to their decision.
"For your specific situation, here is what this week's move means. You can get refreshed numbers today that look better than they did a week ago. Whether you act this week or next, you should at least know where you stand. Want me to text my lender so he can run the soft pull and get you the numbers by Monday?" That last sentence is the close. You teach. You make them smarter. Then you give them the simple next step.
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Starting move this weekend: pick 3 buyers from your A list who panic on Fed news. Call each one, run the three beats, end with the soft-pull offer. Text me their names. I'll have refreshed numbers back to you by Monday morning. By next Wednesday they understand the mechanics for the first time in their life and they remember who taught them.
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📱 Social Media Post of the Week
Angle: the season is doing the work. Pair with your headshot or a "sold" yard sign.
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A few real things happening in the housing market this month, in plain English.
The median U.S. home sale price just hit an all-time record. May, June, and July are historically the strongest pricing months of the year. By October prices usually flatten and buyer urgency cools off.
Kids are out of school. Families wanting to be settled before August are running out of weekends. Snowbirds thinking about a winter place down south are about to start their summer search.
Mortgage rates ticked down to a 6-week low. That brings more buyers off the bench right when more sellers are getting ready to list.
If you have been waiting for the market to make sense, this is what it looks like when it does. Message me. I'll tell you what makes sense for your situation, not what the news is selling.
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📧 Client Forward Block
Copy everything below and forward to a buyer or seller this weekend.
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Market Update — June 19, 2026
A few things worth knowing as we move into the back half of June. The median U.S. home sale price hit an all-time record in May. May, June, and July are historically the strongest pricing months of the year, then things typically flatten as kids head back to school and buyer urgency cools.
Signed home contracts also rose 3.8 percent in May, the third straight monthly increase. That tells us actual deals are getting done, not just listings hitting the market.
On the rate side, mortgage rates eased to a six-week low. Compared to a year ago, the typical buyer on a $400K loan is now paying about $90 less per month. That works out to roughly $1,080 a year that stays in your pocket.
What all of that means depends on your specific situation. If you have been thinking about buying or selling this year and want a clear-headed read on the numbers, hit reply. I'll connect you with my team for a no-pressure conversation.
This is a general market overview based on national averages from the Freddie Mac PMMS® for the week ending 6/18/2026 and the NAR May 2026 Pending Home Sales report. Not an offer to lend. Your actual rate and payment will depend on your individual financial profile. Cole Brantley, NMLS# 1905939. Mpire Financial, NMLS# 2108504. Equal Housing Lender.
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🤖 AI Tip of the Week
Use AI as the translator that turns confusing Fed news into a clear client text
Every time the Fed announces, your clients see scary headlines and your inbox fills up with questions. The agents who win those moments are the ones who send a calm, plain-English explanation BEFORE the questions come in. The problem is doing that from scratch takes 30 minutes, requires you to actually understand Treasury mechanics, and has to sound like you, not a press release. AI handles all three in under 2 minutes.
After any Fed announcement, paste this into Claude or ChatGPT with the actual news from that day:
"I'm a real estate agent. The Federal Reserve just announced [INSERT FED NEWS]. Mortgage rates [INSERT WHAT HAPPENED]. Write a short text I can send my buyer clients that does three things: (1) explains in plain English what the Fed actually did, (2) explains why mortgage rates moved the way they did (mortgage rates follow the 10-year Treasury, not the Fed directly), (3) gives them one clear takeaway about their specific situation. Calm, confident, no jargon, no words like 'navigate' or 'leverage.' Under 100 words. End with a one-line invitation to text me back if they want to talk."
Read the result, change one or two words so it sounds like you, send it to your A list within an hour of the Fed announcement. The next time Wall Street panics, you're the calm voice in your buyer's inbox. They remember that.
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🍽 Next Lunch & Leads
Claude: Projects and Skills
Thursday, June 25 at 12 PM ET. Going deeper. How to set up Claude Projects for your business, build custom skills, and get AI to do work that actually sounds like you. Bring lunch. Free to join.
Grab Your Seat →
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🏆 The Friday Question
First 5 to text the right answer get coffee on me.
Read the issue. Find the answer. Be fast. That's the whole game.
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This week's question
"Of the 18 voting members on the Federal Reserve's policy committee, how many now project at least one rate hike before the end of 2026?"
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Text the answer to
(813) 579-8812
First 5 correct answers before 12:00 PM ET today win. One entry per agent.
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📈 What Moved Rates This Week
The week had two stories that pulled rates in opposite directions, and the back-half won.
Wednesday at 2 PM, the Fed got hawkish. The Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously 12 to 0 to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50 to 3.75 percent, which markets expected. The surprise was in the projections. Nine of the eighteen voting members now project at least one rate hike before the end of 2026. Six see two hikes. The inflation forecast jumped from 2.7 percent in March to 3.6 percent. The 2-year Treasury yield spiked 16 basis points in a single day, the biggest Fed-day move since March 2008. Mortgage rates jumped to 6.62 percent.
Wednesday at the same time, President Trump signed a preliminary U.S.-Iran peace agreement. The deal opens 60 days of talks toward a final agreement that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz to pre-conflict shipping levels. Oil prices eased. Bond markets started to price in lower future inflation pressure.
Thursday, the bond market made its choice. The 10-year Treasury yield rallied back to 4.45 percent, recovering most of Wednesday's losses. MND's daily mortgage rate dropped to 6.58. Mike Fratantoni at the MBA captured it: "Growing optimism regarding the opening of the Strait of Hormuz brought rates down again by the end of the week." Freddie Mac's weekly average came in at 6.47 percent, a six-week low.
Markets are closed today for Juneteenth. The next real catalyst is PCE inflation Friday June 26. That number will either validate the Fed's hawkish tilt or push back on it. Existing home sales drop Monday and new home sales Tuesday.
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🤝 How to Refer a Client to Me
Four steps. No friction. Your client gets answered same-day.
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1. Text me the intro
Three-way text works best: "Cole, this is [client]. They're looking at a [purchase/refi]. Can you take it from here?"
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2. I reach out within an hour
Same-day call or text. No phone tag. No long forms before they hear from a human.
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3. Free 15-minute consult
No commitment. They get real numbers, real options, and a clear next step. You get a buyer who's actually qualified.
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4. You stay in the loop
Updates at every milestone. Pre-approval, contract, appraisal, clear-to-close. You never have to chase the file.
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That's the Sheet
Three calls Saturday or Sunday. Pick your three families with kids out of school, your three sellers thinking about waiting until fall, or your three 2022-2023 buyers sitting on real equity. Run the matching call from above. Text me anyone who's pre-approved or thinking about a move and I'll have refreshed numbers back to you by Monday. The agents who pick a real list and work it hard are the ones who close in July.
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🧠 Weird Stat of the Week
The 2-year Treasury yield jumped 16 basis points in a single day Wednesday on the Fed announcement. That's the biggest Fed-day move on the 2-year in eighteen years. The last time it happened was March 2008. Most of your clients have no idea this happened, and most of them never will. The agents who can translate moves like that into one calm sentence for their buyers are the ones whose clients call them first.
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If The Friday Rate Sheet helps you have better client conversations, send it to one agent who needs better Fridays.
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Compliance & Disclosures
Cole Brantley, Loan Officer, NMLS# 1905939. Mpire Financial, NMLS# 2108504. 189 S Orange Ave #2020, Orlando, FL 32801. Equal Housing Lender.
Mortgage rate data sourced from the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®) for the week ending June 18, 2026, and from Mortgage News Daily. Treasury yield data from the U.S. Department of the Treasury and CNBC. Pending home sales data from the National Association of REALTORS® Pending Home Sales Index, May 2026. Federal Reserve data from the June 17, 2026 FOMC statement and Summary of Economic Projections. Rates shown are national averages and do not represent a personal rate quote, commitment to lend, or offer to extend credit.
Payment example assumes a $400,000 loan amount, 30-year fixed-rate term, 20% down payment, conforming conventional loan, borrower with excellent credit, and does not include taxes, insurance, HOA dues, or mortgage insurance. APR will differ from the note rate based on points, fees, and other loan costs. Your actual rate, APR, monthly payment, and total loan costs will depend on your specific financial profile, credit, loan amount, property type, and other factors. Not all applicants will qualify.
This newsletter is intended for real estate professionals for educational and informational purposes only. It is not financial advice and is not an offer to lend. The Client Forward Block is a general market overview suitable for sharing with clients but does not constitute a personal rate quote. The Friday Question is a casual engagement feature for active subscribers and is not a solicitation for mortgage business. Participation is not contingent on any business relationship.
Verify NMLS licensing at nmlsconsumeraccess.org.
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