30-Year Mortgage Rate (Freddie Mac PMMS)

6.49% ↑ 2 bps, stable 6 weeks running

Daily rate (MND)

6.53% lowest since May 14, eased on PCE

What that means on a $400K loan (P&I)

~$2,526/mo ↓ ~$74/mo vs. a year ago ($889/yr)

10-Year Treasury (CNBC)

4.43% slipped on PCE coming in on target

First-time buyer share of closings (NAR)

35% highest since June 2020

🚨 Next big rate mover: June Jobs Report — Friday July 3 at 8:30 AM ET

First Friday rhythm. After May's blowout (+172K vs +80K consensus), markets watching for confirmation or cooling. Pending Home Sales Monday, Case-Shiller Tuesday. Markets close early July 3 ahead of Independence Day.

Source: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), week ending 6/25/2026. Daily rate from Mortgage News Daily. Treasury yield data from CNBC. First-time buyer data from the National Association of REALTORS® Existing-Home Sales Report, May 2026. Rates shown are national averages for a conforming 30-year fixed-rate mortgage and do not represent a personal rate quote or offer to lend. Payment example assumes a $400,000 loan amount, 30-year fixed term, 20% down payment, and does not include taxes, insurance, or PMI. Your actual rate, payment, and costs may vary based on your financial profile. Rate ≠ APR. Not all applicants will qualify.

"A late spring buyer rush even with mortgage rates not budging is an indication of pent-up housing demand and consumers' acceptance of above-6% mortgage rates as the new normal."

Call: First-time buyer or renter in your database (curiosity-pivot)

"[Name], I had you on my mind this week. I learned something I thought you would want to know. First-time buyers are 35% of the market right now. That is the highest in five years. The people I am working with on first homes are not millionaires, they are not putting 20% down, and they are figuring it out one step at a time. I am not calling to sell you anything. I want to know where your head is on owning versus renting right now. If it is just not on the radar that is totally fine. If it is in the back of your mind, I have a lender I trust who does a free 15-minute conversation that gives you real numbers, no pressure. Want me to set that up?"

Call: Owner thinking about selling later this year (data-first)

"[Name], one thing I want to make sure you have on the radar. The May numbers came in this week and the median U.S. home sale price set an all-time record. June and July are historically the strongest pricing months of the year. By the time we get to October, the average seller premium drops by almost a third. If you have been thinking about a Q4 listing because that felt safer, I want to put real numbers in front of you on what a summer listing would do versus a fall one. Not pressure to do anything. Just the math. Can I walk through this week and put together a side-by-side for you?"

[name], thinking of you. First-time buyers are 35% of the market right now, highest in 5 years. A lot of people who have been on the fence are getting their first place. Want to grab coffee and see what your actual numbers look like? No pressure either way.

[name], you might not have noticed this but refinance activity is up 17% over last year. A lot of people who closed at higher rates are taking a second look. If you ever wondered whether your numbers could be better, 10 minutes with my lender is free. Want me to make the intro?

[name], real number worth knowing. Sellers in May earn about 13% above market value on average. By October that premium drops to about 9%. If you have been planning a fall listing, I want to put the summer vs. fall math in front of you. Quick walkthrough this week?

[name], if a new build has been on your wish list, builders are sitting on 10 months of inventory right now. That is when concessions, rate buydowns, and upgrades show up. If you want me to find out what is actually being offered in your range this month, I can do it in a day.

1. Pull the renter list. Do not filter.

Open your CRM. Search anyone you have ever talked to who said some version of "I'm renting and thinking about it eventually." Friends, sphere, past leads, people who came to an open house, people who DM'd you, anyone. Do not pre-qualify them in your head. The point of this play is not to find buyers ready to write a contract this week. The point is to restart the conversation that went cold and find out which ones are actually ready.

2. The story-connect call. Three sentences.

"Hey [name], I had you on my mind this week. I just learned something I thought you would want to know. First-time buyers are 35% of the market right now, the highest in five years, and the people I'm working with are figuring it out one step at a time. I'm not calling to sell you anything. I just want to know where your head is on owning versus renting right now." Then stop talking. Let them tell you. Most people say one of three things, and all three of them are useful to you.

3. Book the lender call right there.

Do not leave it as "I'll send you my lender's number." Send a three-way text on the spot. You, them, me. "Hey [name], this is Cole, the lender I told you about. He runs a free 15-minute call that gives you real numbers." That is it. I take it from there. You stay in the loop on every milestone. The buyer goes from a dormant name in your phone to a real conversation in 48 hours. Most of these calls do not produce a buyer this month. They produce a buyer in September or October who already knows your name and trusts the team.

A real one for the renters reading this.

You are not alone if you have been waiting for the "right time" to buy your first place. You probably told yourself you would do it when rates dropped. Or when prices came down. Or when something specific in your life lined up.

Here is what is actually happening right now. First-time buyers are 35% of the market. That is the highest share in five years. The people you imagine are getting first homes are not all in higher tax brackets. Most of them are figuring it out one step at a time, the same way you would.

And the math is not what you think. Most first-time buyers do not put 20% down. There are programs that cut your upfront cost way more than you have been told.

If owning has been in the back of your mind, message me. We will sit down for 15 minutes, no pressure, and I will get you a real picture of what your numbers actually look like. Not a sales call. A clarity call.

Market Update — June 26, 2026

A couple things worth knowing as June wraps up. First-time buyers were 35% of all home closings in May, the highest share in five years. That tells you the people who had been waiting on the sidelines have decided this market is workable for them, even with rates where they are.

For perspective, the median U.S. home sale price hit an all-time record in May. June and July are historically the strongest pricing months of the year, and the seller premium drops noticeably by October. If selling has been on your mind for later this year, the math for summer versus fall is meaningfully different right now.

On the rate side, mortgage rates eased to their lowest level since mid-May. Compared to a year ago, the typical buyer on a $400K loan is paying about $74 less per month, or close to $900 a year. Refinance activity is also picking up. If you closed in 2023 or 2024 at a higher rate, it may be worth a quick conversation.

If you want a clear-headed read on your specific situation, hit reply. I will connect you with my team for a no-pressure conversation.

This is a general market overview based on national averages from the Freddie Mac PMMS® for the week ending 6/25/2026 and the NAR May 2026 Existing-Home Sales Report. Not an offer to lend. Your actual rate and payment will depend on your individual financial profile. Cole Brantley, NMLS# 1905939. Mpire Financial, NMLS# 2108504. Equal Housing Lender.

🍽 Next Lunch & Leads

Topic TBD

Thursday, July 16 at 12 PM ET. Topic dropping soon. Bring lunch. Free to join. Reply hit me up if you want to suggest a topic.

Grab Your Seat →

This week's question

"First-time buyers made up what percentage of all U.S. home closings in May, the highest share since June 2020?"

Text the answer to

(813) 579-8812

First 5 correct answers before 12:00 PM ET today win. One entry per agent.

1. Text me the intro

Three-way text works best: "Cole, this is [client]. They're looking at a [purchase/refi]. Can you take it from here?"

2. I reach out within an hour

Same-day call or text. No phone tag. No long forms before they hear from a human.

3. Free 15-minute consult

No commitment. They get real numbers, real options, and a clear next step. You get a buyer who's actually qualified.

4. You stay in the loop

Updates at every milestone. Pre-approval, contract, appraisal, clear-to-close. You never have to chase the file.

🧠 Weird Stat of the Week

Brent crude oil hit $114 a barrel earlier this year. As of Thursday it was sitting at $73.40. That's a 35 percent drop in about four months. Most of your buyers and sellers have no idea that the inflation pressure that drove rates higher all spring is essentially deflating in real time. If you can hold one stat in your head for next week's conversations, this is it. The thing that has been pushing on rates is moving in the opposite direction.