30-Year Mortgage Rate (Freddie Mac PMMS)

6.43% ↓ 6 bps, 7-week low

Daily rate (MND)

6.60% ↓ 5 bps on soft jobs data

What that means on a $400K loan (P&I)

~$2,510/mo ↓ ~$63/mo vs. a year ago ($759/yr)

10-Year Treasury (CNBC)

4.47% hit 7-week low of 4.36% Monday

Buy-vs-rent sentiment (Bank of America survey)

Buy > rent first time since 2023

🚨 Next big rate mover: FOMC decision & Warsh presser — Wednesday July 30

Between now and then: CPI July 15, Pending Home Sales & Retail Sales July 16, Existing Home Sales July 9. With today's June jobs report missing consensus (+57K vs +115K expected) and Warsh's tone softening this week, the July FOMC becomes a "how dovish does he go" meeting rather than a hike watch.

Source: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), week ending 7/2/2026. Daily rate from Mortgage News Daily. Treasury yield data from CNBC. Buy-vs-rent survey data reported by Bank of America, July 2026, cited via the Mortgage Bankers Association. Rates shown are national averages for a conforming 30-year fixed-rate mortgage and do not represent a personal rate quote or offer to lend. Payment example assumes a $400,000 loan amount, 30-year fixed term, 20% down payment, and does not include taxes, insurance, or PMI. Your actual rate, payment, and costs may vary based on your financial profile. Rate ≠ APR. Not all applicants will qualify.

Call: Buyer who lost a house in the last 60 days (acknowledge-reframe)

"Hey [name], I've been thinking about the [property or house on X street] situation. I know we didn't get it, and I don't want to just push past that and pretend it wasn't a hard week. Losing a house you actually pictured yourself in is a real thing, and it changes the way you go into the next one. What I want to do this week is different. I don't want to send you 12 new links. I want to sit with you for 30 minutes, either coffee or Zoom, and just talk about what we actually learned about your must-haves versus your nice-to-haves. Once we do that, I can search smarter, and when the right one shows up we can move faster. Would Saturday morning or Sunday afternoon work better for you?"

Call: Long-term owner whose life stage has shifted (story-connect)

"Hey [name], I had a coffee with a client this week and it made me think of you. They had been in their house since 2003. The kids are gone, the house does not fit who they are anymore, and they had been putting off the whole conversation about selling because the whole idea of moving felt overwhelming. What we ended up doing was simple. We did not talk about what the house is worth. We did not talk about the market. We just talked about what their day would look like if the house were the right size for who they are now, instead of who they were in 2003. I would love to sit with you and do the same thing. No listing conversation. No pressure to do anything. Just a real conversation over coffee this month. Would you be open to that?"

[name], you crossed my mind. I know the [address] one stung. Rates are at a 2-month low and a couple homes popped this week that reminded me of what you liked about that one. Not sending links yet. Can we talk 15 min first about what we'd do differently next time?

[name], you told me at [event] you were watching the market. So am I. First time since 2023 more Americans want to buy than rent. Rates dipped to a 2-month low this week. If you still want to be watching six months from now that's fine. If something changed, want to grab coffee this month?

[name], quick thought. If you've been in your house 15+ years and have ever wondered whether it still fits who you are now, I want to walk you through a simple exercise this month. Not a listing pitch. A what-would-your-life-look-like conversation. 30 minutes, coffee's on me. Yes or maybe?

[name], hope the trip was great. Two things while you were away. Rates dropped to a 2-month low, and I flagged a couple homes I want you to see before Sunday. Not throwing you back into the deep end. Just want to make sure the week off didn't cost us anything. Free Saturday morning?

Column 1: Under Contract (close by August 15)

Verify one thing for each: do you know the exact clear-to-close date, and do you have the lender's cell number? If either answer is no, that gets solved Monday morning. Deals do not fall apart because of drama. They fall apart because the agent found out about the problem two days too late.

Column 2: Actively Looking (must have contact by Monday)

Every buyer touring right now or every seller getting a home ready. Verify: do you know their max price, their three non-negotiables, and the one thing they need to see or do this week? If not, that's the Monday call. Not "checking in." A specific question. The specific question is what earns the next 30 days of trust.

Column 3: Warm (need a real conversation by end of July)

Everyone who was looking two months ago and paused. Everyone who said "let's revisit in the fall." Everyone who told you at a dinner they were "watching the market." This is the column where most Q3 revenue actually hides, and it's the column most agents avoid because those conversations feel harder than sending an MLS link. Ask what made them pause. Then be quiet.

Column 4: Cold Sphere (one touch by end of August)

Any conversation that went dark 60+ days ago. Past clients you haven't talked to in a year. Friends who bought pre-2020 and think of you as "their agent" but haven't heard from you in real life. Not a mass text. One real, one-to-one message per person. It doesn't need to sell anything. It needs to remind them you exist.

Column 5: Referral Partners (coffee or lunch by end of July)

Every person who sent you a deal in 2025 who has not heard from you in the last 60 days. Book something. Not a phone call. In person. That's the difference between a partner and a business card.

Monday is July 6. That is the exact halfway point of the year.

If you told yourself in January that this would be the year, and you're sitting on the fence in July, this is your check-in.

A few things happened this week worth knowing. For the first time since 2023, more Americans want to buy than rent. Rates dropped to their lowest level in almost two months. Purchase activity is running ahead of last year's pace for the third month in a row.

Nobody who bought a house in July has ever said "I wish I had waited until November when there was more competition and less inventory."

If you want a clear-headed conversation with no pressure and real numbers, message me. Take you 15 minutes. Either you feel ready to move or you feel clear on what you're waiting for. Both are wins.

Mid-Year Market Note — July 3, 2026

Quick note as we get to the halfway point of the year. A few things have shifted worth putting on your radar.

First, for the first time since 2023, more Americans said in a national survey this week that they prefer buying to renting. That is a real sentiment change. It tells you the people who have been waiting are starting to run their own numbers again.

Second, mortgage rates dropped to a seven-week low. Compared to a year ago, the typical buyer on a $400K loan is paying about $63 less per month, or roughly $759 over a year.

Third, home price growth split in two by region. Some markets like Chicago and Cleveland are up 3-6% year-over-year. Some like Tampa and Phoenix are down 1-2%. What is happening in your specific market matters more than what the national number says. If you want a clear read on your neighborhood, that's a 10-minute conversation.

If you have been putting off a home decision until "the second half of the year," that starts Monday. Hit reply if you want to have the conversation now instead of in October.

This is a general market overview based on national and regional averages from the Freddie Mac PMMS® for the week ending 7/2/2026, the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Index (April 2026, released 6/30/2026), and a Bank of America consumer survey reported in July 2026. Not an offer to lend. Your actual rate and payment will depend on your individual financial profile. Cole Brantley, NMLS# 1905939. Mpire Financial, NMLS# 2108504. Equal Housing Lender.

🍽 Next Lunch & Leads

Claude for Business Planning

Thursday, July 16 at 12 PM ET. How to use Claude to build your Q3 plan, your quarterly goals, your weekly cadence. Bring lunch. Free to join. Real agents building real plans, live.

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This week's question

"For the first time since which year did more Americans favor buying over renting, according to this week's Bank of America survey?"

Text the answer to

(813) 579-8812

First 5 correct answers before 12:00 PM ET today win. One entry per agent.

1. Reach out to me first

Text, email, or call me with the client's info and any notes about their situation. More context up front means better first conversation.

2. Introduce us in a 3-way text

Example: "Hey [name], this is Cole Brantley, the mortgage broker I told you about. He's going to reach out to set up a time to talk through your options."

3. I take it from there

I reach out 7 times over 4 days with calls and texts to set a consultation. After every conversation, you get a recap of where things stand and what's next.

4. Long-term follow-up (no one gets forgotten)

If the client doesn't respond after the first week, they move to biweekly follow-up from my call center team. No lead dropped. Lower-intent client? Just note it up front and we match whatever cadence you want.

🧠 Weird Stat of the Week

The share of new mortgage applications coming in as ARMs (adjustable-rate mortgages) just dropped to 7.6%, the lowest level since January. When rates are volatile, most people assume buyers reach for the ARM to save money short-term. What's actually happening is the opposite. Buyers this summer are locking 30-year fixed at the lowest rates in seven weeks and choosing certainty over the gamble. That is a confidence signal most agents will miss.