30-Year Mortgage Rate (Freddie Mac PMMS)

6.49% ↑ 6 bps, reversing last week's 7-week low

Daily rate (MND)

6.65% near 10-month highs

What that means on a $400K loan (P&I)

~$2,526/mo ↓ ~$60/mo vs. a year ago ($729/yr)

10-Year Treasury (CNBC)

4.58% drifted higher on FOMC + oil

June median home sale price (NAR)

$440,600 all-time record, +1.8% YoY

🚨 Next big rate mover: June CPI — Tuesday July 14 at 8:30 AM ET

Last major inflation reading before the July 28-29 FOMC decision. May came in at 4.2% YoY, highest since April 2023. Cleveland Fed nowcast puts June near 3.96%. A cool print pulls rates lower. A hot one re-opens September hike odds. Also this week: the Iran ceasefire showed strain again, oil ticked to $73.75, and MND flagged rate direction as "dependent on oil price volatility." Middle East tension is back in the driver's seat alongside inflation data.

Source: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), week ending 7/9/2026. Daily rate from Mortgage News Daily. Treasury yield data from CNBC. Median home price and existing-home sales data from the National Association of REALTORS® June 2026 Existing-Home Sales Report, released 7/9/2026. Rates shown are national averages for a conforming 30-year fixed-rate mortgage and do not represent a personal rate quote or offer to lend. Payment example assumes a $400,000 loan amount, 30-year fixed term, 20% down payment, and does not include taxes, insurance, or PMI. Your actual rate, payment, and costs may vary based on your financial profile. Rate ≠ APR. Not all applicants will qualify.

"The median home price has reached an all-time high. Even so, affordability is better than a year ago because wage growth is outpacing home price growth."

Call: Move-up owner stuck on the "when will rates drop" question (question-first)

"Hey [name], I've been thinking about our conversation from earlier this spring about wanting more space. I don't want to ask you whether you're ready to look at homes. I want to ask you something different. What has to be true 12 months from now for you to feel like you made a good decision this year? Because sometimes people say 'not yet' when what they really mean is 'not sure how,' and those are two totally different conversations. I don't want to sell you a house. I want to help you get clear on whether this window is the right one for you or whether you're better off waiting. Either way you win. Coffee this weekend?"

Call: Owner considering selling but waiting for the market to "settle" (data-first)

"Hey [name], I want to share something with you that shifted how I think about the summer market. Homes sold in June closed at a record high median price. But the part nobody talks about is that wages are now growing faster than home prices. Which means real buyers with real paychecks can afford more relative to their income than they could a year ago. So while some sellers are waiting for the market to 'settle,' the actual demand is showing up right now. I don't want to push you into a listing conversation. I want to make sure you have this data before you make a decision either way. Can we spend 20 minutes on it this week?"

[name], you crossed my mind. I know back in [month] you wanted to wait until things felt calmer. Two things worth knowing. Purchase applications have been up year over year for 3 months straight. Wage growth is finally beating home price growth. Doesn't mean you have to act. But I'd rather you have the data before deciding to wait longer. Coffee this month?

[name], quick one. Rental property owners are showing up in the buyer data again after being quiet for a while. If you've ever wondered whether it's a smart time to add to your portfolio or trim it, I can pull the current cap rates for your area and we can talk real numbers. 15 min. Zero pressure.

[name], the sell-first-or-buy-first question keeps a lot of good buyers frozen. Here's what I've learned from the lender side: there are 3 ways to solve it and one of them almost nobody knows about. If you want to spend 15 minutes on which one fits your situation, I'll walk you through them. Free either way.

[name], if [kid's name] is heading off in August, that's a real inflection point. A lot of parents I know go into full "we should downsize" mode for about 3 months, then talk themselves out of it. Not saying you should sell. Saying if you want to talk through what your options actually look like before you decide, that's worth 30 minutes. Coffee this month?

Objection 1: "I'll wait for rates to drop."

Your reframe: Every buyer who has been waiting for the "right rate" since 2023 is now paying the wrong price. When rates went up, supply stayed low and prices climbed. If your client holds out for a 6% rate but the house they wanted goes up $25K in the meantime, they lost more than they saved.

What to actually say: "I hear you. Here's the thing. The 30-year rate hit a seven-week low last week and then popped right back up this week on Fed news and overseas tension. That's the pattern. Rates move both directions in ten-day windows. Meanwhile the median price just hit an all-time high. The house you want isn't waiting. Let's talk about whether the payment works today, not whether the rate will be better in November."

Objection 2: "Prices are too high."

Your reframe: Prices ARE high. But wage growth is now running ahead of home price growth for the first time in 3 years. Median wages are up around 3.5% year over year. Median home prices are up 1.8%. That means the same paycheck goes further on the same house than it did a year ago. Affordability is actually improving even when the sticker number looks scary.

What to actually say: "You're right, the price is high. And I want to show you something that isn't in the news. Wages grew almost twice as fast as home prices this year. So the paycheck to payment math is actually better than it was 12 months ago. It doesn't feel like it because the number went up. But the reality is you can afford more relative to your income than you could last summer."

Objection 3: "I need more inventory to choose from."

Your reframe: There are 1.56 million existing homes on the market right now, a 4.6-month supply. That's the highest supply level we've had at any point since 2020. If they can't find one this month, they're being too specific about their must-haves, not the market being too small.

What to actually say: "There's more inventory available right now than we've had since 2020. If we haven't found the right home, it's usually one of two things. Either your must-have list has grown, or we haven't been searching wide enough. Let's spend 20 minutes on your must-haves versus nice-to-haves this weekend. I bet we'll find three homes for you to see by Sunday night."

The median home sale price in the U.S. just hit an all-time record.

I know that sentence is going to freeze a lot of people who have been thinking about buying.

Here's the part nobody is putting on the front page. Wages grew almost twice as fast as home prices this year. Which means the same paycheck goes further on the same house than it did 12 months ago.

Affordability is actually improving. It just doesn't feel that way because the sticker number keeps going up.

If you've been sitting on the fence, message me. 15 minutes, no pressure, real numbers on what your actual payment would look like. Either the math works and it's time to talk, or the math doesn't and you know exactly what you're waiting for. Both are wins.

Market Note — July 10, 2026

Quick market update. Existing home sales for June came out this week. A couple things worth having on your radar.

The median U.S. home sale price hit an all-time record of $440,600, up 1.8% from a year ago. That's the number that will make the news. But the part that got less attention is that wages are now growing faster than home prices. About 3.5% year over year versus 1.8%. The practical result is that affordability is actually improving compared to last summer, even though the price on the sticker keeps going up.

First-time buyers were 33% of all June closings, up from 30% a year ago. Steady progress. All-cash transactions dropped to 25% from 29%, which means the market is shifting back toward buyers who work with a lender and an agent instead of investors with cash.

On the payment side, compared to a year ago, a typical buyer on a $400K loan is paying about $60 less per month, roughly $729 over a year.

If you want a clear-headed conversation about how this all applies to your specific situation, hit reply. My team can run real numbers with no pressure.

This is a general market overview based on national averages from the Freddie Mac PMMS® for the week ending 7/9/2026 and the NAR June 2026 Existing-Home Sales Report. Not an offer to lend. Your actual rate and payment will depend on your individual financial profile. Cole Brantley, NMLS# 1905939. Mpire Financial, NMLS# 2108504. Equal Housing Lender.

🍽 Next Lunch & Leads

Claude for Business Planning

Thursday, July 16 at 12 PM ET. How to use Claude to build your Q3 plan, your quarterly goals, and your weekly cadence. Bring lunch. Free to join. Real agents building real plans, live.

Grab Your Seat →

This week's question

"First-time buyers made up what percentage of all June 2026 home closings, according to the NAR report released this week?"

Text the answer to

(813) 579-8812

First 5 correct answers before 12:00 PM ET today win. One entry per agent.

1. Reach out to me first

Text, email, or call me with the client's info and any notes about their situation. More context up front means better first conversation.

2. Introduce us in a 3-way text

Example: "Hey [name], this is Cole Brantley, the mortgage broker I told you about. He's going to reach out to set up a time to talk through your options."

3. I take it from there

I reach out 7 times over 4 days with calls and texts to set a consultation. After every conversation, you get a recap of where things stand and what's next.

4. Long-term follow-up (no one gets forgotten)

If the client doesn't respond after the first week, they move to biweekly follow-up from my call center team. No lead dropped. Lower-intent client? Just note it up front and we match whatever cadence you want.

🧠 Weird Stat of the Week

All-cash home purchases dropped to 25% of June closings from 29% a year ago. Most agents assume cash buyers are a bigger and bigger share of the market. The data is telling you the opposite. Traditional financed buyers, the ones who need an agent AND a lender, are gaining share back. Which means the number of conversations available to you this fall is bigger than the news would suggest.