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📊 Every Friday at 6 AM
The Friday Rate Sheet
The rates + the scripts + the playbook. Every Friday.
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#23 · JULY 31, 2026
There are five people in your database who need to hear from you this weekend. Not a market update. A phone call about their actual life. Here's who they are.
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This Week's Numbers
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30-Year Mortgage Rate (Freddie Mac PMMS)
6.66% ↑ 8 bps, highest of 2026
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Daily rate (MND)
6.62% bumped up post-FOMC
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What that means on a $400K loan (P&I)
~$2,571/mo +$21/mo vs. last week
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10-Year Treasury (CNBC)
4.67% 30-yr yield near 2-decade high
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Case-Shiller 20-City home price index (May)
+1.6% YoY strongest annual gain since August 2025
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🚨 Next big rate mover: Jackson Hole — Warsh's speech, August 27-29
The Fed removed forward guidance from the statement this week. Warsh's Jackson Hole speech is now THE event. Between now and then: Employment Cost Index and jobs report tomorrow (8/1), CPI on 8/12, PCE on 8/26. Next FOMC decision September 16. Market pricing 42% chance of September hold (up from 24% before Wednesday) meaning traders now think hikes are more likely.
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Source: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), week ending 7/30/2026. Daily rate from Mortgage News Daily. Treasury yield data from CNBC. Home price data from S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, May 2026 release, published 7/28/2026. Rates shown are national averages for a conforming 30-year fixed-rate mortgage and do not represent a personal rate quote or offer to lend. Payment example assumes a $400,000 loan amount, 30-year fixed term, 20% down payment, and does not include taxes, insurance, or PMI. Your actual rate, payment, and costs may vary based on your financial profile. Rate ≠ APR. Not all applicants will qualify.
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👀 What The Data Actually Says
The Fed held. Three officials wanted to hike. The market didn't buy the hold. Your database is going to be talking about this at every dinner table this weekend.
Big week from the news side. Here is the short version so you can spend the rest of the weekend on the phone.
The Fed held rates Wednesday at 3.5 to 3.75 percent for the fifth meeting in a row. But 3 of the 12 voting members dissented, and all 3 wanted to raise rates. That is the biggest dissent count at a Fed meeting since September 2016. Chair Warsh also removed forward guidance from the statement, which is Wall Street code for "stop expecting us to tell you what we are going to do next." The market read that as hawkish. Long-term Treasury yields jumped. The 30-year Treasury sits near its highest level in almost two decades.
Mortgage rates followed. Freddie's 30-year jumped 8 basis points to 6.66 percent, the highest reading of 2026. Every buyer sitting on the fence waiting for a September rate cut just watched that door close. And every homeowner watching mortgage news at breakfast just heard a number that is going to make them want to talk to someone who can explain what it means for them.
The housing market is doing something interesting underneath the rate story. Home prices ticked back up in May per Case-Shiller. The 20-city composite rose 1.6 percent year over year, the strongest annual gain since last August. But that number hides a huge regional split. Chicago is up 6.9 percent. Las Vegas is down 1.9 percent. Whichever region you work in matters more than the national headline. Homeowners in strong markets are sitting on more equity than they realize. Homeowners in soft markets have a pricing conversation coming.
All of this is background noise for the actual play. The play is the phone. There are 5 specific people in your database this weekend who need a call about their real life, not about rates. The Playbook names them.
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Your Scripts & Texts for This Week
Fresh audiences. Real coaching. Every call is about their life, not the market.
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🗣️ For Calls & Meetings
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Call: Move-up owner who mentioned wanting more space 6+ months ago (story-connect)
"Hey [name], I have been thinking about our conversation from back in [month]. You mentioned needing more space for the kids, we talked about the layout, and then life happened and we did not follow up. I want to be honest with you. Kids do not stop growing while we wait for the perfect time. And what your family needs from a house at 8 and 11 is really different from what you needed at 5 and 8. I do not want to sell you a house you are not ready for. But I do want to sit down for 30 minutes and figure out whether the plan you had 6 months ago still makes sense, or whether we need to build a new plan. Saturday morning or Sunday afternoon?"
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Call: Homeowner whose neighbor's house just sold in a week for over ask (acknowledge-reframe)
"Hey [name], I know you may have seen [address] go pending down the street. They had 3 offers and closed above ask in 8 days. I bring it up because a lot of homeowners see something like that happen and start doing quiet math in their head about their own place, and then talk themselves out of it because they think their situation is different. Yours may be. I want to sit down and pull the real number for your specific house so you know exactly where you stand, whether you decide to do anything with it or not. Not a pitch. Just the honest number. Coffee this weekend?"
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📱 Copy-Paste Texts — Tap, Copy, Send
Text: Any buyer who has been sitting on the fence · The Check-In
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Hey [name], you crossed my mind this week. Not sure if you are still thinking about a move this year or if it is on the back burner, but either way I want to check in. Want to grab 20 min this weekend or next?
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Text: Any renter in your sphere · The Real Numbers
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Hey [name], hope you are good. Real question. Have you actually run the numbers on buying vs renewing your lease this year? A lot of people are surprised by what it looks like. Happy to walk you through it with my lender, no pressure to do anything. Coffee this month?
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Text: Any homeowner in your sphere · The Real Number
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Hey [name], home prices ticked up again this year and most homeowners have no idea what their place is actually worth right now. I can pull the real number for your street this weekend. Not a listing pitch, just so you know where you stand. Want it?
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Text: Any past client · The Warm Reconnect
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[name], it has been a minute. Not reaching out about anything specific, just wanted to say hi and see how things are going with you and the family. If anything on the house front is on your mind, I am always here. Coffee soon?
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🔨 The Playbook
The Five People. Who they are, what they are thinking, what to say. One weekend, five calls.
Here is the truth about this week. Rates are up, the Fed just told everyone to stop expecting cuts, and your database is going to be having quiet conversations at kitchen tables. Do not send them a market update. Call them about their actual life. These 5 people exist in almost every agent's phone. Find yours.
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Person 1: The buyer who paused waiting for the Fed.
What they are thinking: "I made the right choice waiting. Rates will come down and I will buy then." That story just broke. Wednesday's Fed decision made it clear cuts are not happening this year.
What to say: "The Fed decided. Now we know. Let's spend 20 minutes on what actually makes sense for you this year, whether that is buying or explicitly deciding to wait 12 more months."
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Person 2: The move-up owner with kids who are still growing.
What they are thinking: "We are cramped, but moving right now feels hard. Maybe next year." They said the same thing last year. The kids kept growing.
What to say: "Kids do not stop growing while we wait for the perfect market. What your house needs to be at 8 and 11 is different than at 5 and 8. Let's build a real plan, not another 'someday.'"
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Person 3: The renter whose lease is up in October.
What they are thinking: "I know I should figure this out but I keep pushing it off." 90 days out is the exact right window for the real math conversation.
What to say: "You have 90 days until renew-or-move decision time. Renewing is fine. Buying is fine. Guessing is not fine. Let me pull the actual numbers on both so you can make the call with real information."
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Person 4: The homeowner whose neighbor's house just sold in a week.
What they are thinking: Right now, at the dinner table: "I wonder what ours would go for." They will not ask you. You have to ask them.
What to say: "You may have noticed [address] closed above ask this week. It is making a lot of homeowners think about their own number. I would like to pull the real one for your house so you have it, whether you do anything with it or not. Coffee this weekend?"
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Person 5: The sphere contact who once mentioned moving closer to aging parents.
What they are thinking: They mentioned it 3 to 12 months ago and you never followed up. It is still on their mind. Life moves them further into it every month.
What to say: "You crossed my mind. Last time we caught up, you mentioned thinking about moving closer to your folks. Not asking if you are ready to list. Asking how they are doing and whether that conversation is still on your mind."
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⭐ Pro tip from my side
Do not send these as templates to a group text. Five different people, five different phone calls or personalized messages. If you are going to send a text instead of calling, use the copy-paste texts above but rewrite one line to reference something you specifically remember about that person. That personalization is the whole point.
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Starting move this weekend: Sunday afternoon. Pick your version of each of the 5. Send 5 personalized messages or make 5 calls. By Monday morning you will have 2 to 3 real replies. By next Friday you will have a booked appointment. That is the whole game.
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📱 Social Media Post of the Week
Angle: addressed to the homeowner or buyer having a quiet kitchen-table conversation this week. Pair with a photo of you and a client at a recent closing.
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If you are having a quiet conversation with your spouse this week about the house, the rate, or the plan, you are not alone. A lot of people are doing that same math at their dinner table right now.
Here is my only pitch. Do not do it alone with a browser tab and a mortgage calculator that guesses at your specific numbers. Text me. 20 minutes on a phone call. I will pull the real numbers for your actual situation, not a national average, and you can decide from there.
Not a sales call. A clarity call. If it makes sense, we talk about next steps. If it does not, you now know exactly where you stand for the rest of the year. Both are wins.
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📧 Client Forward Block
Copy everything below and forward to a client this weekend.
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Market Note — July 31, 2026
Quick note if you own a home or are thinking about buying one. This week was noisy but here is what actually matters for you.
The Fed met Wednesday and held rates steady for the fifth time in a row. They also stopped telegraphing what they will do next. The result is that anyone who was waiting for a big rate cut this year probably needs a different plan. That is not bad news, it just means the situation is what it is for a while.
Home prices are still rising in most of the country. Case-Shiller data released this week showed the 20-city composite up 1.6 percent year over year, the strongest annual gain in nearly a year. But the story is very regional. Chicago is up almost 7 percent. Las Vegas is down almost 2 percent. Whatever the national number says, your specific neighborhood is what actually matters.
If you have been sitting on a decision, whether that is buying, selling, thinking about a move-up, or wondering what your home is really worth, hit reply. My team can pull real numbers for your specific address in about 20 minutes. Not a sales call. Just the honest picture.
Better to make a real decision with real information than a good guess.
This is a general market overview based on national averages from the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (May 2026 release, 7/28/2026) and the Freddie Mac PMMS® week ending 7/30/2026. Not an offer to lend and not a personal home valuation. Cole Brantley, NMLS# 1905939. Mpire Financial, NMLS# 2108504. Equal Housing Lender.
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🤖 AI Tip of the Week
The Weekend Call List. Turn your messy contact list into a ranked 5-person call sheet in 90 seconds.
The Playbook this week is 5 people. The problem for most agents is not knowing WHO in their database matches those 5 profiles. Your CRM has 800 names in it. Your brain remembers 30. This prompt closes the gap.
Export a simple contact list from your CRM (name, last touch date, buyer or seller or past client, one-line note about their situation if you have it). Open ChatGPT or Claude. Upload the file. Paste this prompt:
"I am a real estate agent. Attached is my contact list with notes. Please look through it and identify people who match any of these 5 profiles: (1) an active buyer who paused waiting for interest rates to drop, (2) a homeowner with growing kids who was thinking about a move-up but never followed through, (3) a renter whose lease is coming up in the next 60 to 120 days, (4) a homeowner who has mentioned or noticed neighborhood sales activity, (5) a sphere contact who once mentioned wanting to move closer to family. For each match, give me their name, which profile they fit, one sentence on what to say to them, and a suggested first message under 45 words. If information is missing, flag it. Do NOT invent context you cannot see in the notes."
Pick the top 5 from what comes back. Personalize one line on each. Send them Sunday afternoon. That is a real weekend campaign built with information you already had, just organized in a way your brain could not do on its own.
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🍽 Next Lunch & Leads
Open Office Hours + Newsletter Showcase
Thursday, August 13 at 12 PM ET. Bring your questions, your stuck spots, and the tools you want help with. I will also do another walkthrough of building your own agent newsletter for the folks who missed the first session. Bring lunch. Free to join.
Grab Your Seat →
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🏆 The Friday Question
First 5 to text the right answer get coffee on me.
Read the issue. Find the answer. Be fast. That's the whole game.
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This week's question
"How many Federal Reserve officials dissented from the July 29 rate decision?"
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Text the answer to
(813) 579-8812
First 5 correct answers before 12:00 PM ET today win. One entry per agent.
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📈 What Moved Rates This Week
A four-act week that ended with rates at 2026 highs and the Fed making clear the wait-for-cuts trade is dead through year-end.
Monday and Tuesday. Pre-FOMC positioning. Bond markets held their breath. Case-Shiller May data released Tuesday morning at 9 AM ET. National home prices up 1.1 percent year over year, 20-city composite up 1.6 percent (strongest annual gain since August 2025), 10-city up 2.4 percent. Chicago led at plus 6.9 percent year over year, its third straight month at the top. Las Vegas worst at minus 1.9 percent. Real (inflation-adjusted) prices declined for the 12th consecutive month.
Wednesday. THE Fed meeting. FOMC voted 9 to 3 to hold rates at 3.5 to 3.75 percent for the fifth consecutive meeting. Three dissents (Hammack, Kashkari, Logan) all wanted a 25 basis point hike. That is the biggest FOMC dissent count since September 2016. Warsh removed forward guidance from the statement and shortened the language, part of his stated intent to reduce Fed telegraphing. Warsh in press conference: "I asked for a good family fight and I got one." Told reporters the cooler June inflation data did NOT significantly influence the hold decision. Market reaction: stocks fell (Dow down 1.6 percent), 30-year Treasury yield jumped 9 basis points to near a 2-decade high, 10-year up 5 basis points to 4.657 percent, 2-year fell 4 basis points. Bear steepener. Market pricing shifted to 42 percent chance of September hold (up from 24 percent), meaning traders now think hikes are more likely.
Thursday. Q2 GDP advance estimate came in at 1.5 percent annualized, below the 2.1 percent consensus and down from Q1's 2.1 percent. Weaker economic growth, higher long yields, hawkish Fed. Same morning, June PCE showed headline inflation down to 3.7 percent year over year (from 4.1 percent) and core down to 3.3 percent (from 3.4 percent), the Fed's preferred measure. Personal saving rate fell to 2.7 percent, a 4-year low, as consumers dipped into savings to sustain spending. Noon: Freddie PMMS jumped 8 basis points to 6.66 percent, the highest reading of 2026 and highest since summer 2025. Rates ended the week at year highs.
The setup for next week. Employment Cost Index and July nonfarm payrolls both drop tomorrow Friday morning at 8:30 AM ET. Both are catalysts. CPI for July follows on August 12, PCE on August 26. Warsh's Jackson Hole speech August 27-29 is now THE event, since he removed the forward guidance signal from Fed statements. Any strong data point between now and Jackson Hole will push rates higher. Any softer print softens the picture. Either way, the "just wait for lower rates" narrative your fence-sitters have been holding onto is officially over for 2026.
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🤝 How to Refer a Client to Me
Four steps. Real process. Your client gets answered same-day, every time.
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1. Reach out to me first
Text, email, or call me with the client's info and any notes about their situation. More context up front means better first conversation.
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2. Introduce us in a 3-way text
Example: "Hey [name], this is Cole Brantley, the mortgage broker I told you about. He's going to reach out to set up a time to talk through your options."
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3. I take it from there
I reach out 7 times over 4 days with calls and texts to set a consultation. After every conversation, you get a recap of where things stand and what's next.
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4. Long-term follow-up (no one gets forgotten)
If the client doesn't respond after the first week, they move to biweekly follow-up from my call center team. No lead dropped. Lower-intent client? Just note it up front and we match whatever cadence you want.
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Cole Brantley · (813) 579-8812 · [email protected] · NMLS# 1905939
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That's the Sheet
Five people. Five calls. Sunday afternoon. Do not send a group text. Do not blast a market update. Pick 5 real humans and reach out to each one about their actual life. By Monday morning you will have 2 to 3 replies. By next Friday you will have a booked appointment. This is the whole game.
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🧠 Weird Stat of the Week
The personal saving rate fell to 2.7 percent in June, a 4-year low. Americans are dipping into savings to keep spending. The practical read for you is that a lot of homeowners and renters in your database are feeling squeezed right now, even if they are not talking about it. A phone call that acknowledges that squeeze without judgment is worth 10 mass-marketing emails.
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If The Friday Rate Sheet helps you have better client conversations, send it to one agent who needs better Fridays.
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Compliance & Disclosures
Cole Brantley, Loan Officer, NMLS# 1905939. Mpire Financial, NMLS# 2108504. 189 S Orange Ave #2020, Orlando, FL 32801. Equal Housing Lender.
Mortgage rate data sourced from the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®) for the week ending July 30, 2026, and from Mortgage News Daily. Treasury yield data from CNBC. Home price data from S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, May 2026 release, published 7/28/2026. FOMC data from the Federal Open Market Committee meeting held July 28-29, 2026. Inflation data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Personal Income and Outlays report (June 2026, released 7/30/2026). GDP data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate for Q2 2026, released 7/30/2026. Rates shown are national averages and do not represent a personal rate quote, commitment to lend, or offer to extend credit.
Payment example assumes a $400,000 loan amount, 30-year fixed-rate term, 20% down payment, conforming conventional loan, borrower with excellent credit, and does not include taxes, insurance, HOA dues, or mortgage insurance. APR will differ from the note rate based on points, fees, and other loan costs. Your actual rate, APR, monthly payment, and total loan costs will depend on your specific financial profile, credit, loan amount, property type, and other factors. Not all applicants will qualify.
This newsletter is intended for real estate professionals for educational and informational purposes only. It is not financial advice and is not an offer to lend. The Client Forward Block is a general market overview suitable for sharing with clients but does not constitute a personal rate quote or personal home valuation. The Friday Question is a casual engagement feature for active subscribers and is not a solicitation for mortgage business. Participation is not contingent on any business relationship.
Verify NMLS licensing at nmlsconsumeraccess.org.
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