|
📊 Every Friday at 6 AM
The Friday Rate Sheet
The rates + the scripts + the texts. Every Friday.
|
|
#4 · MARCH 13, 2026
That sub-6% window from two weeks ago? It closed. Rates bounced back to 6.11% this week. Oil prices are surging, bonds are selling off, and the Fed meets next Wednesday. Here is exactly what to say about all of it.
|
|
|
This Week's Numbers
|
|
30-Year Mortgage Rate (Freddie Mac PMMS®)
6.11% ↑ 0.11% from last Friday
|
|
What that means on a $400K loan
~$2,427/mo still ~$141/mo less than a year ago
|
|
Year-over-year savings
~$1,696/yr vs. 6.65% in March 2025
|
|
Bond rate that drives mortgages (10-Year Treasury · CNBC)
4.245% ↑ from 4.15% last Friday
|
|
Gap between mortgage & bond rates
1.87% narrowing trend (down from ~3% in 2023)
|
|
⚠️ Next big rate mover: FOMC Rate Decision + Dot Plot, Wednesday, March 18 at 2:00 PM ET
|
|
Source: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), week ending 3/12/2026. Rates shown are national weekly averages for a conforming 30-year fixed-rate mortgage and do not represent a personal rate quote or offer to lend. Payment example assumes a $400,000 loan amount, 30-year fixed term, 20% down payment, and does not include taxes, insurance, or PMI. Your actual rate, payment, and costs may vary based on your financial profile. Rate ≠ APR. Not all applicants will qualify.
|
|
|
|
Your Scripts & Texts for This Week
The theme this week: preparation beats prediction. Your clients can't control rates, but they can control whether they're ready.
|
|
🗣️ For Calls & Meetings
|
What to Say to a Buyer
"[Name], I know there's a lot of noise in the news right now about what's happening overseas and what it means for the economy. I totally get the instinct to wait. Here's what I'd be thinking about if I were in your shoes. Rates bounced back above 6% this week because of oil prices, not because of anything wrong with the housing market. The Fed meets next Wednesday and that could move things again. The buyers who are pre-approved right now are the ones who can actually move when a window opens. The ones who aren't are watching from the sidelines. I've got a great mortgage broker who does free consultations with zero pressure. Want me to make an introduction so you're positioned if things shift next week?"
|
|
What to Say to a Seller
"[Name], I was just looking at the numbers for your area and I want to share something with you. Home sales ticked up in February. Purchase applications are running about 11% ahead of last year. And here's the part that matters for you: over half of sellers this spring are planning to offer some kind of buyer incentive. That tells you the market is competitive for sellers. The ones who price right and bring a clean offer to the table are still moving. The ones who overprice are sitting 60, 70, 80 days. If you've been thinking about timing, the spring window is open right now, but more listings are hitting the market every week. Want me to put together some comps so you can see exactly where your home fits?"
|
|
|
📱 Copy-Paste Texts
Buyer Nudge (active buyers)
|
[Name], the Fed announces their rate decision Wednesday. If they signal cuts are coming, every sidelined buyer in the market jumps back in at once. The people who are already pre-approved get first pick. Want me to introduce you to my mortgage broker before Wednesday so you're set either way?
|
Buyer Sphere (quiet/past leads)
|
[Name], one number I saw this week that surprised me. Over 62% of buyers last year got a discount off list price. That almost never happened two years ago. Sellers are negotiating in ways they haven't in a long time. Is buying still on your radar at all?
|
Seller Nudge (listing prospects)
|
[Name], first-time buyers just hit 34% of all sales, the highest share in months. That buyer pool is growing. But here's the catch: homes that are priced right are moving in 47 days. Homes that aren't are sitting past 70. Pricing strategy is everything right now. Can I show you where your place fits?
|
Past Client (refi opportunity)
|
Hey [name], quick thought. Rates are about half a point lower than when you closed. Depending on your loan size that could be a couple hundred bucks a month back in your pocket. No idea if the numbers work for your situation but I've got a mortgage broker who can tell you in about 10 minutes. Want me to connect you?
|
|
|
|
Social Media Post of the Week
Copy this caption. Post it with a photo of your neighborhood or your headshot. Add your own hashtags.
|
The headlines are loud right now. Oil prices. Geopolitics. The Fed meeting next week.
Here's what the headlines aren't telling you: mortgage rates are still about half a percentage point lower than this time last year. Existing home sales just ticked up. Purchase applications are running 11% ahead of 2025. And affordability is at its best level since March 2022.
The noise makes people freeze. The numbers say the people who are moving right now have more options, more negotiating power, and better monthly payments than they would have had 12 months ago.
Anyone else watching this disconnect between the headlines and the actual data?
|
|
|
|
Client Forward Block
Copy the section below and forward it to a buyer or seller who needs this week's update. No jargon, no industry-speak, just the facts they care about.
|
|
Market Update for the Week of March 13, 2026
Mortgage rates ticked up slightly this week after dipping below 6% at the end of February. The increase was driven by rising oil prices and uncertainty about what's happening overseas, not by anything specific to the housing market.
Even with the bump, rates are still noticeably lower than where they were a year ago. On a typical home, that translates to roughly $140 less per month compared to last March. Affordability is at its best level in about four years.
The big thing to watch next week: the Federal Reserve announces its rate decision on Wednesday, March 18. They're expected to hold steady, but the updated projections will signal how many cuts they're planning for the rest of the year. That could move things.
If you've been thinking about buying or selling, the spring market is open and buyer activity is picking up. Hit reply and I'll connect you with my team to walk through what makes sense for your situation.
This is a general market overview based on national averages from the Freddie Mac PMMS® for the week ending March 12, 2026 and is not an offer to lend. Your actual rate and payment will depend on your individual financial profile. Cole Brantley, NMLS# 1905939. Mpire Financial, NMLS# 2108504. Equal Housing Lender.
|
|
|
|
🤖 AI Tip of the Week
Turn Market Data Into Client-Ready Talking Points in 30 Seconds
You're reading this newsletter right now. You have data. But your clients don't want data. They want someone to tell them what it means for them. Here's how to bridge that gap instantly.
Copy this prompt into Claude or ChatGPT:
|
"I'm a real estate agent. Here's what happened in the mortgage market this week: [paste 2-3 bullet points from this newsletter]. Write me three short talking points I can use with buyers and three for sellers. Keep each one under two sentences. Write like a real person talking, not a brochure. Do not use em dashes. Do not use words like 'stunning' or 'nestled' or 'boasts' or 'navigate.'"
|
Pro move: paste 3-5 of your own recent texts or emails before the prompt and add "Study how I write. Match my sentence length, my word choices, and my tone." Now it sounds like you, not like a robot.
|
|
|
What Moved Rates This Week
Oil prices, not economic data.
This was an unusual week. The February CPI report came out Wednesday and landed exactly where economists expected: 2.4% annually, 0.3% monthly. Core inflation actually cooled to 0.2%. Rent growth posted its smallest monthly increase since January 2021. Normally, that kind of report would keep rates stable or even push them lower.
Instead, rates went up. Why? The U.S. and Israeli military operations against Iran have disrupted global oil markets. The Strait of Hormuz, which handles roughly 20% of global petroleum, is effectively shut down. Brent crude has surged from about $72 to over $118 per barrel in under two weeks. Gas prices nationally hit $3.58 per gallon, up 20% since the conflict started.
The bond market is pricing in future inflation from energy costs. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed from 3.95% to 4.245% in two weeks without any bad economic data driving it. That pulled mortgage rates from their sub-6% low back to 6.11%.
Wednesday also saw a weak Treasury auction (C- grade), which added to the selling pressure. But the takeaway is clear: rates moved because of geopolitics, not because of the U.S. economy.
What to tell clients who ask: "The economy is actually fine. Inflation is cooling, jobs are stable, and nothing in the data says rates should be going up. What's driving this is oil prices from the situation overseas. That's temporary. The underlying trend for rates is still lower than last year."
|
|
|
What This Means for Buyers & Sellers
The FOMC meeting next Wednesday is the real catalyst.
Markets are pricing in a 94% chance the Fed holds rates steady. The decision itself probably won't surprise anyone. What matters is the updated dot plot, which will show how many rate cuts the Fed expects for the rest of 2026. If they signal even one cut is still on the table, that could calm the bond market and bring mortgage rates back toward 6% or below. If they pull back to zero cuts, expect rates to stay elevated through spring.
Existing home sales beat expectations.
NAR reported 4.09 million in February, up 1.7% from January and well above the 3.89 million forecast. First-time buyers made up 34% of sales, the highest share in months. Median price was $398,000. Inventory hit 1.29 million units, which is 3.8 months of supply. That's still below the 5-6 months that represents a balanced market. Translation: there is more to choose from than last year, but it is still not a buyer's market nationally.
Gas prices are the hidden budget squeeze.
Here's an angle nobody else is talking about with your clients. Gas prices up 20% in two weeks means the average household is spending an extra $50-70 per month at the pump. That eats into the monthly housing budget. For buyers on the edge of qualification, this could be the difference between a yes and a no from underwriting. It is worth flagging to clients who are in the pre-approval process: get it done now before energy costs show up in the next round of inflation data and potentially push rates higher.
The refi opportunity is real and growing.
Refinance applications are up 81% year over year. If you have past clients who bought in 2023 or early 2024 when rates were in the high 6s or low 7s, they could be saving $200+ per month right now. That is a warm call waiting to happen. Reach out, mention the savings, and connect them with your lender.
|
|
|
How to Refer a Client to Me
|
|
Have a client who needs financing? Here's exactly what happens.
|
Step 1
Reach out to me first. Text, email, or call me with the client's info and any notes about their situation. The more context upfront, the better I can serve them.
|
|
Step 2
Introduce me in a 3-way text. A group text with you, me, and the client. Something like: "Hey [name], this is Cole Brantley, the mortgage broker I told you about. He's going to reach out to set up a time to talk through your options."
|
|
Step 3
I take it from there. I reach out to the client 7 times over the next 4 days with a mix of phone calls and text messages to set a consultation. After every conversation, I send you a recap of where things stand and what the next steps are.
|
|
Step 4
No one gets forgotten. If the client doesn't respond after the first week, they move into a biweekly follow-up cadence from my call center team. No lead gets dropped.
|
Lower-intent client? Just note it in your initial referral and my team follows up on whatever cadence you want.
I specialize in: Purchase | Refinance | VA/FHA | New Construction | Builders | Investors | First-Time Buyers
Cole Brantley | 813-579-8812 | [email protected] | ColeBrantley.com
|
|
|
That's the Sheet
See you next Friday.
This weekend, text three past clients who bought in 2023 or 2024 at higher rates. Don't pitch them. Just say: "Hey [name], rates have come down quite a bit since you closed. Might be worth a look. Want me to connect you with my lender to see if the numbers make sense?" The refi conversation is the easiest warm call you'll make this month.
Know an agent who could use a Friday cheat sheet? Forward this or share: ColeBrantley.com/friday-rate-sheet/signup
|
|
|
Disclosures
Cole Brantley | Loan Officer | NMLS# 1905939
Mpire Financial | NMLS# 2108504 | 189 S Orange Ave #2020, Orlando, FL 32801
Rate data sourced from the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), published weekly. Rates shown are national weekly averages for a conforming 30-year fixed-rate mortgage and do not represent a personal rate quote, commitment to lend, or offer of a specific rate. Payment examples assume a $400,000 loan amount, 30-year fixed term, 20% down payment, and do not include taxes, homeowner's insurance, HOA dues, or private mortgage insurance (PMI). Your actual rate, APR, payment, and costs may vary based on your credit profile, loan amount, property type, occupancy, and other factors. Rate ≠ APR. Not all applicants will qualify. Subject to credit approval.
NMLS Consumer Access: nmlsconsumeraccess.org
Equal Housing Lender.
|
