|
📊 Every Friday at 6 AM
The Friday Rate Sheet
The rates + the scripts + the texts. Every Friday.
|
|
#5 · MARCH 20, 2026
The Fed held steady. The dot plot still says one cut this year. But rates climbed to a 2026 high anyway. Here is why that happened, what it actually means, and what to say to clients who saw the headlines and froze.
|
|
|
This Week's Numbers
|
|
30-Year Mortgage Rate (Freddie Mac PMMS®)
6.22% ↑ 0.11% from last Friday
|
|
Daily rate (Mortgage News Daily, Mar 19)
6.43% 2026 high (weekly avg understates mid-week spike)
|
|
What that means on a $400K loan
~$2,455/mo still ~$118/mo less than a year ago
|
|
Bond rate that drives mortgages (10-Year Treasury · CNBC)
4.28% flat week-over-week, but wild intraday swings
|
|
Gap between mortgage & bond rates
1.94% widening slightly (was 1.87% last week)
|
|
⚠️ Next big rate mover: February PCE Inflation (Fed's preferred gauge), Wednesday, April 9
|
|
Source: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), week ending 3/19/2026. Daily rate from Mortgage News Daily. Rates shown are national averages for a conforming 30-year fixed-rate mortgage and do not represent a personal rate quote or offer to lend. Payment example assumes a $400,000 loan amount, 30-year fixed term, 20% down payment, and does not include taxes, insurance, or PMI. Your actual rate, payment, and costs may vary based on your financial profile. Rate ≠ APR. Not all applicants will qualify.
|
|
|
|
Your Scripts & Texts for This Week
This week's theme: everyone is reading the same scary headlines. The agent who shows up with specific local knowledge wins.
|
|
🗣️ For Calls & Meetings
|
What to Say to a Buyer
"[Name], I want to tell you something that happened this week with one of my deals that I think changes how you should be thinking about this market. I had two buyers close this week where the seller paid to buy their rate down well below what you'd see on any rate sheet right now. Not a small adjustment. A serious buydown. On top of that, I'm working multiple deals right now where sellers are covering over $15,000 in concessions. Closing costs, rate buydowns, repairs. A year ago sellers wouldn't even return your call about concessions. Right now they're offering them upfront just to get a deal done. The headline rate you see in the news is not the rate my buyers are actually getting. That's the part most people miss. Want me to introduce you to my mortgage broker so he can show you what a deal actually looks like with seller concessions factored in?"
|
|
What to Say to a Seller
"[Name], have you been watching the news this week? [Pause. Let them answer.] I know. It feels like everything is uncertain. And you're probably thinking this is the worst possible time to list a home. Here's what surprised me when I looked at the actual data. Pending home sales just came in higher than anyone expected. Up almost 2% when every economist predicted they'd fall. Buyer activity is running 12% ahead of last year. The demand is there. The question is whether sellers show up to meet it. Right now you'd have less competition from other listings than at any point this spring. If you've been thinking about timing, would it make sense to sit down for 15 minutes this week so I can walk you through exactly what's happening in your specific neighborhood?"
|
|
|
📱 Copy-Paste Texts
Buyer Nudge (active buyers)
|
[Name], two of my lender's deals closed this week where the seller bought the rate down well below market. Another three have over $15K in seller concessions. The rate on the news is not the rate people are actually getting right now. Want me to introduce you to my mortgage guy so you can see what the real numbers look like?
|
Buyer Sphere (quiet/past leads)
|
[Name], did you take buying completely off the table or just put it on pause?
|
Seller Nudge (listing prospects)
|
[Name], you'd think nobody's buying right now with everything going on. Pending home sales actually just came in higher than expected for the first time in three months. Buyers are out there. Most sellers just haven't noticed yet. That's your window.
|
Sphere (gone quiet 90+ days)
|
Hey [name], I've been sending you market updates and I realized I never asked if you still want them. If your plans changed, totally fine. If real estate is still on your radar at all, I'm here. Either way, no hard feelings.
|
|
|
|
Social Media Post of the Week
Copy this caption. Post it with a photo of a closing table, a sold sign, or your headshot. Add your own hashtags.
|
I keep hearing the same thing from buyers this week: "I'm going to wait until rates come down."
Meanwhile, the buyers who are actually out there right now are getting sellers to cover closing costs, pay for rate buydowns, and hand over concessions that weren't on the table six months ago.
The rate you see in the news is not the rate people are actually paying. The smart money right now is negotiating the deal, not waiting for the perfect rate.
Has anyone else noticed how much more flexible sellers are right now compared to a year ago?
|
|
|
|
Client Forward Block
Copy the section below and forward it to a buyer or seller who needs this week's update.
|
|
Market Update for the Week of March 20, 2026
The Federal Reserve met this week and decided to keep rates where they are. They're still planning one rate cut later this year, but they're being cautious because of rising energy costs from the situation overseas.
Mortgage rates ticked up slightly this week and are at their highest point of the year so far. Even with the increase, they're still meaningfully lower than a year ago, which translates to roughly $118 less per month on a typical home compared to last March.
One thing worth knowing: sellers right now are more flexible than they've been in years. Many are offering to cover closing costs and even pay to buy down the buyer's interest rate as part of the deal. That means the rate you see in the headlines is often not the rate buyers are actually ending up with. If you've been holding off because rates feel high, it's worth having a conversation about what a deal actually looks like once you factor in what sellers are willing to bring to the table.
Questions? Hit reply and I'll connect you with my team to talk through your options.
This is a general market overview based on national averages from the Freddie Mac PMMS® for the week ending March 19, 2026 and is not an offer to lend. Your actual rate and payment will depend on your individual financial profile. Cole Brantley, NMLS# 1905939. Mpire Financial, NMLS# 2108504. Equal Housing Lender.
|
|
|
|
🤖 AI Tip of the Week
Write a Follow-Up Sequence That Doesn't Sound Like Every Other Agent
Most agents send the same three texts: "Just checking in." "Any updates?" "Still interested?" Every single one gets ignored. Here's how to build a 5-touch follow-up sequence that actually gets responses.
Copy this prompt into Claude or ChatGPT:
|
"I'm a real estate agent following up with a buyer lead who toured a home 10 days ago and went quiet. Write me a 5-message follow-up sequence spaced over 3 weeks. Each message should use a different angle: one should share a market insight, one should reference something specific about the home they toured, one should be ultra-short (under 10 words), one should offer an easy out, and one should tell a quick story about another buyer in a similar situation. Keep all messages under 3 sentences. Write like a real person texting a friend. Do not use em dashes. Do not use words like 'stunning' or 'nestled' or 'boasts' or 'navigate.' No exclamation points."
|
Bonus: paste your last 5 text conversations with leads before the prompt and add "Match my voice exactly. Study my word choices, sentence length, and how I start messages." Now it writes like you, not like a template.
|
|
|
What Moved Rates This Week
Three things hit at once. All on the same day.
Wednesday was one of the most eventful days for the bond market in months. Three separate forces collided within 12 hours, and all of them pushed rates higher.
8:30 AM: Producer prices came in very hot. The February PPI report showed wholesale prices up 0.7% in a single month. Economists expected 0.3%. That's more than double the forecast. Year over year, producer prices are running at 3.4%, the highest since early 2025. The critical detail: this data was collected before the Middle East conflict escalated, which means inflation was already running hot before oil prices spiked.
2:00 PM: The Fed held rates and raised its inflation forecast. No rate change, as expected. But the updated projections told the real story. The Fed now expects inflation to run at 2.7% this year, up from 2.4% in December. Seven of 19 Fed members now see zero cuts in 2026, up from six in December. Powell said inflation progress has been slower than hoped and acknowledged the energy situation creates real uncertainty.
Overnight: The conflict in the Middle East escalated sharply. Strikes hit energy infrastructure in Qatar, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia. Qatar's Ras Laffan facility, which handles about 17% of global LNG exports, sustained major damage. Oil briefly touched $119 per barrel before pulling back to around $108. Gas prices continue rising.
What to tell clients who ask: "The Fed is still planning one rate cut this year, which is good. But the timeline keeps getting pushed back because of energy prices and inflation. We're looking at summer at the earliest. That said, rates are still about half a percentage point lower than last spring, and the real opportunity right now is in negotiating power, not rate chasing."
|
|
|
What This Means for Buyers & Sellers
Seller concessions are the real story right now. Use them.
This is the angle that moves deals off the fence. I closed two transactions this week where the seller paid to buy the buyer's rate all the way down to 4.99%. Not a temporary buydown. A permanent one. I've got multiple other active deals right now with over $15,000 in seller concessions covering closing costs, rate buydowns, and repairs. Over half of sellers nationally are now offering some form of concession, up 14 points from last year. Over 62% of buyers in 2025 got a discount off list price. The market has shifted and most buyers don't realize it yet. When your client says "I'm waiting for rates to drop," your answer is: "The rate on the news is not the rate my buyers are getting. Let me introduce you to my lender and he'll show you what the numbers actually look like with a seller buydown built in." That reframes the entire conversation from rate-watching to deal-making.
The spring season is delayed, not cancelled.
Pending home sales surprised everyone this week by rising 1.8% in February when every forecast called for a decline. That data was captured when rates were near 3-year lows in late February. The contracts signed then will close in April and May. But with rates now at 2026 highs, March pending data will likely be softer. The agents who are having conversations right now are the ones who'll close deals in May and June. The agents who wait for "better conditions" will be competing with everyone else when conditions actually improve.
Powell is staying through the transition. That matters.
Powell confirmed he'll remain as Chair until his successor is confirmed, even past his May 15 term expiration. Kevin Warsh is the leading candidate and is generally viewed as more hawkish. The practical takeaway for agents: don't sell your clients on rate cuts that may not happen. Sell them on the math that works today. If the math works at 6.22%, they're in a strong position. If rates drop later, they can always refinance.
66 metros now have more inventory than before the pandemic.
This is a stat worth knowing for your local market conversations. Nationally, inventory is still about 17% below 2019 levels. But 66 of the 200 largest metros have already passed that threshold. Nine entire states (including Florida, Texas, Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, and Utah) have more homes for sale than they did pre-pandemic. If you're in one of those markets, the conversation with sellers shifts. It's no longer "you can name your price." It's "let's price this right because buyers have options they didn't have two years ago."
|
|
|
How to Refer a Client to Me
|
|
Have a client who needs financing? Here's exactly what happens.
|
Step 1
Reach out to me first. Text, email, or call me with the client's info and any notes about their situation. The more context upfront, the better I can serve them.
|
|
Step 2
Introduce me in a 3-way text. A group text with you, me, and the client. Something like: "Hey [name], this is Cole Brantley, the mortgage broker I told you about. He's going to reach out to set up a time to talk through your options."
|
|
Step 3
I take it from there. I reach out to the client 7 times over the next 4 days with a mix of phone calls and text messages to set a consultation. After every conversation, I send you a recap of where things stand and what the next steps are.
|
|
Step 4
No one gets forgotten. If the client doesn't respond after the first week, they move into a biweekly follow-up cadence from my call center team. No lead gets dropped.
|
Lower-intent client? Just note it in your initial referral and my team follows up on whatever cadence you want.
I specialize in: Purchase | Refinance | VA/FHA | New Construction | Builders | Investors | First-Time Buyers
Cole Brantley | 813-579-8812 | [email protected] | ColeBrantley.com
|
|
|
That's the Sheet
See you next Friday.
Pick up the phone this weekend. Most agents go quiet when the news gets loud. That's exactly when your clients need to hear from you. Call two sellers. Call two buyers. Don't pitch them. Just say: "I've been watching the market closely and wanted to check in. How are you feeling about things?" The ones who pick up are the ones who are ready to move.
Know an agent who could use a Friday cheat sheet? Forward this or share: ColeBrantley.com/friday-rate-sheet/signup
|
|
|
Disclosures
Cole Brantley | Loan Officer | NMLS# 1905939
Mpire Financial | NMLS# 2108504 | 189 S Orange Ave #2020, Orlando, FL 32801
Rate data sourced from the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®) and Mortgage News Daily, published weekly/daily respectively. Rates shown are national averages for a conforming 30-year fixed-rate mortgage and do not represent a personal rate quote, commitment to lend, or offer of a specific rate. Payment examples assume a $400,000 loan amount, 30-year fixed term, 20% down payment, and do not include taxes, homeowner's insurance, HOA dues, or private mortgage insurance (PMI). Your actual rate, APR, payment, and costs may vary based on your credit profile, loan amount, property type, occupancy, and other factors. Rate ≠ APR. Not all applicants will qualify. Subject to credit approval.
NMLS Consumer Access: nmlsconsumeraccess.org
Equal Housing Lender.
|
