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The Friday Rate Sheet

The rates + the scripts + the texts. Every Friday.

#6 · MARCH 27, 2026

Rates hit a six-month high this week. Applications dropped for the second straight week. The headlines are as loud as they've been all year. And the agents who pick up the phone this weekend will close the deals that the agents who froze will wish they had.

This Week's Numbers

30-Year Mortgage Rate (Freddie Mac PMMS®)

6.38% ↑ 0.16% from last Friday

Daily rate (Mortgage News Daily, Mar 26)

6.62% 6-month high (highest since Sept 2025)

What that means on a $400K loan

~$2,497/mo still ~$71/mo less than a year ago

With a seller-funded buydown to ~5%

~$2,145/mo that's $352/mo less. Real deals closing right now.

Bond rate that drives mortgages (10-Year Treasury · CNBC)

4.37% hit 4.40% mid-week (8-month high) before pulling back

Gap between mortgage & bond rates

2.01% widening (was 1.87% two weeks ago)

⚠️ Next big rate mover: March Jobs Report, Friday, April 3 at 8:30 AM ET

Source: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), week ending 3/26/2026. Daily rate from Mortgage News Daily. Rates shown are national averages for a conforming 30-year fixed-rate mortgage and do not represent a personal rate quote or offer to lend. Buydown example reflects recent closed transactions and is not guaranteed. Payment examples assume a $400,000 loan amount, 30-year fixed term, 20% down payment, and do not include taxes, insurance, or PMI. Your actual rate, payment, and costs may vary based on your financial profile. Rate ≠ APR. Not all applicants will qualify.

Your Scripts & Texts for This Week

This week's theme: the scared money is sitting out. That's your opening.

🗣️ For Calls & Meetings

What to Say to a Buyer

"[Name], I know rates went up again this week. I'm not going to pretend they didn't. And you're probably thinking it makes sense to wait. Here's what I'd be thinking about if I were in your shoes. Mortgage applications just dropped 10% two weeks in a row. That means buyers are pulling back. But here's what happens when buyers pull back: sellers get nervous. They offer concessions. They pay for rate buydowns. They cover closing costs. My mortgage broker closed two deals last week where the seller bought the rate all the way down to about 5%. That's a $350 per month difference on a $400K home versus the rate you see in the news. The people who are buying right now aren't paying what the headlines say. They're negotiating. And they're negotiating from a position of strength because there's less competition. Want me to connect you with my lender so he can show you what a deal actually looks like right now?"

What to Say to a Seller

"[Name], I was going through my client list this week and your name came up. I just wanted to check in and see how things are going. Are you still happy in the house? [Let them talk. Don't pitch.] By the way, something interesting is happening right now that I thought you should know about. Over a third of listings in most markets have taken a price cut. Homes are sitting about 47 days on average, which is up from last year. But the homes that are priced correctly from day one are still moving, and they're moving at strong numbers. The difference between the sellers who are succeeding and the ones who are sitting is pricing strategy. If you've thought at all about making a move in the next year or so, it would be worth 15 minutes to look at what's happening on your street. No pressure either way. Oh, and by the way, if you know anyone who's been thinking about buying or selling, I'd appreciate you sending them my way."

📱 Copy-Paste Texts

Buyer Nudge (active buyers)

[Name], mortgage applications just dropped 10% two weeks in a row. Everyone's reading that as bad news. For you it's the opposite. Fewer buyers means more negotiating room. Sellers are covering closing costs and buying down rates on deals right now that they wouldn't have touched two months ago. This is the window. Want me to connect you with my lender?

Buyer Sphere (quiet/past leads)

[Name], you've probably noticed gas is almost $4 a gallon. Here's why that actually matters for your housing situation. Higher gas means higher inflation numbers, which keeps rates elevated longer. If you've been waiting for the "perfect" rate, it might keep moving further away. Might be worth a 10-minute call with my mortgage broker just to know where you stand. No cost, no commitment.

Seller Nudge (listing prospects)

[Name], I was at a closing this week and the listing agent said something that stuck with me. She said the sellers who listed in March are closing right now. The ones who waited until April are about to compete with a wave of new spring listings. Timing the market is hard. Timing the competition is easier. Want to look at where your home fits before the spring rush?

Sphere (referral generation)

Hey [name], quick question. Do you know anyone who's been trying to buy but keeps getting stuck on the rate? I've got a mortgage broker who's been structuring deals where sellers cover the buydown and buyers end up with rates way below what you'd expect. Just want to make sure the right people know about it.

Social Media Post of the Week

Copy this caption. Post with a candid photo of you on your phone or at a desk. Add your own hashtags.

I talked to four agents this week. Every one of them said the same thing.

The buyers who are still out there right now are getting better deals than anyone got in February when rates were lower. Sellers are paying for rate buydowns. They're covering closing costs. They're negotiating in ways they flat-out refused to do six months ago.

The rate on the news is not the rate people are actually paying. That's the thing nobody's talking about right now.

Who else is seeing this in their market?

Client Forward Block

Copy the section below and forward it to a buyer or seller who needs this week's update.

Market Update for the Week of March 27, 2026

Mortgage rates climbed again this week, reaching their highest point in about six months. This is being driven almost entirely by rising energy costs from the situation overseas, not by anything wrong with the U.S. economy or the housing market itself.

Here is something most people don't realize: the rate you see in the headlines is not necessarily the rate buyers are actually getting. Sellers right now are more willing to negotiate than at any point in the last four years. Many are offering to cover closing costs or even pay to buy down the buyer's interest rate as part of the deal. That can make a meaningful difference in your monthly payment.

The next big report to watch is the March jobs report coming out Friday, April 3. A weak report could push rates lower. A strong one could keep them elevated. Either way, the negotiating environment for buyers right now is better than most people think.

Questions? Hit reply and I'll connect you with my team.

This is a general market overview based on national averages from the Freddie Mac PMMS® for the week ending March 26, 2026 and is not an offer to lend. Your actual rate and payment will depend on your individual financial profile. Cole Brantley, NMLS# 1905939. Mpire Financial, NMLS# 2108504. Equal Housing Lender.

🤖 AI Tip of the Week

Build a Listing Presentation in 10 Minutes

Most listing presentations look like they were made in 2014. Here's how to build one that actually wins the appointment.

Copy this prompt into Claude or ChatGPT:

"I'm a real estate agent preparing a listing presentation for a homeowner at [address]. The home is a [beds/baths/sqft]. I want you to write a 1-page market analysis section for my presentation. Include: a 2-sentence neighborhood overview, the current median price for similar homes in the area, how long homes are taking to sell, what percentage of sellers are offering concessions, and a recommended list price range based on the data. End with one sentence about why now is a good time to list. Write in a confident, professional tone. Do not use em dashes. Do not use words like 'stunning' or 'nestled' or 'boasts.' Keep it under 200 words."

Then ask it to create 3 slides from that analysis. Paste the output into Canva or Google Slides. You now have a custom, data-backed presentation that took 10 minutes instead of 2 hours.

🍽 Lunch & Leads: Listing Presentation Generators → Today, Thursday 3/26, Grab a Seat

What Moved Rates This Week

The Middle East. That's it. That's the whole story.

For the fourth straight week, the conflict overseas is the dominant force moving mortgage rates. Oil prices are up roughly 47% from pre-conflict levels. Gas is approaching $4 per gallon nationally. The bond market is pricing in higher inflation for longer, and that's translating directly into higher mortgage rates.

Mid-week volatility was wild. On Tuesday, the 10-year Treasury yield pushed above 4.40% for the first time in eight months after a weak Treasury auction. On Wednesday, yields dropped sharply when ceasefire reports surfaced. Then they reversed again when Iran rejected the U.S. peace proposal. On Thursday, Trump extended the energy strike deadline by 10 days (to April 6), which gave markets a small breather. MND reported rates dropped about 10 bps intraday on that news before settling near the highs.

Fed officials came out hawkish this week. The post-FOMC blackout period ended, and several Fed members spoke publicly. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said he's "more worried about inflation than unemployment" and put rate hikes explicitly on the table. Governor Barr said rates may need to stay steady "for some time." Markets are now pricing in zero cuts for 2026, with a roughly 25% chance of a hike by October.

What to tell clients who ask: "Rates are higher right now because of oil prices and what's happening overseas. That's not something we can control or predict. What we can control is how we structure the deal. Sellers are more flexible than they've been in years. The rate on the news is not the rate my buyers are actually getting. Let me show you what that looks like."

What This Means for Buyers & Sellers

The math on seller buydowns is the most powerful tool you have right now.

At today's rate of 6.38%, a $400K loan costs about $2,497/mo. With a seller-funded buydown to around 5%, that same loan costs about $2,145/mo. That's $352 per month. $4,223 per year. Over $21,000 over five years before a refinance even enters the picture. When your buyer says "I'm waiting for rates to come down," your response is: the sellers are already bringing the rates down for you. That buydown math is the entire conversation right now. Make sure your clients understand that the negotiating environment is doing what rate cuts haven't done yet.

April 6 is the next date that matters for rates.

Trump's extended deadline for Iran to begin reopening the Strait of Hormuz expires April 6. If progress is made, oil prices could pull back significantly and mortgage rates would follow. If not, expect another wave of rate pressure. Either way, the March jobs report on April 3 will set the tone for what the Fed does next. A weak report could revive rate-cut hopes. A strong one likely keeps the Fed on hold through summer.

Consumer confidence is falling fast. That's a seller warning sign.

Michigan consumer sentiment fell to 55.5 in March, the lowest of the year. The Conference Board's Expectations Index has been below the recession threshold of 80 for three straight months. Recession odds on prediction markets have climbed to 36%, up from 22% at the start of March. For sellers, this means the pool of willing and confident buyers is shrinking. Pricing right from the start is more important than it's been in years. The overpriced listings are the ones sitting 60, 70, 80 days. The ones priced at market are still moving.

Gas prices are eating into buyer budgets. Flag this with your clients.

Gas at $3.84 per gallon (up 92 cents from a month ago) means the average household is spending an extra $80-100 per month at the pump. That's real money that comes out of the same budget underwriters look at when qualifying a buyer. If you have clients in the pre-approval process, this is worth mentioning: get qualified now before energy costs show up in the next round of inflation data and potentially push rates even higher. Time is not on the sidelines.

How to Refer a Client to Me

Have a client who needs financing? Here's exactly what happens.

Step 1

Reach out to me first. Text, email, or call me with the client's info and any notes about their situation. The more context upfront, the better I can serve them.

Step 2

Introduce me in a 3-way text. A group text with you, me, and the client. Something like: "Hey [name], this is Cole Brantley, the mortgage broker I told you about. He's going to reach out to set up a time to talk through your options."

Step 3

I take it from there. I reach out to the client 7 times over the next 4 days with a mix of phone calls and text messages to set a consultation. After every conversation, I send you a recap of where things stand and what the next steps are.

Step 4

No one gets forgotten. If the client doesn't respond after the first week, they move into a biweekly follow-up cadence from my call center team. No lead gets dropped.

Lower-intent client? Just note it in your initial referral and my team follows up on whatever cadence you want.

I specialize in: Purchase | Refinance | VA/FHA | New Construction | Builders | Investors | First-Time Buyers

Cole Brantley | 813-579-8812 | [email protected] | ColeBrantley.com

That's the Sheet

See you next Friday.

Your weekend assignment: send that referral text (the last green bubble above) to five people in your sphere. Not clients. Friends. Family. People you haven't talked to about real estate in months. The text doesn't ask them to buy or sell. It asks if they know someone who could use help. That one text has the potential to generate more referrals than any open house you'll hold this month.

Know an agent who could use a Friday cheat sheet? Forward this or share: ColeBrantley.com/friday-rate-sheet/signup

Disclosures

Cole Brantley | Loan Officer | NMLS# 1905939

Mpire Financial | NMLS# 2108504 | 189 S Orange Ave #2020, Orlando, FL 32801

Rate data sourced from the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®) and Mortgage News Daily, published weekly/daily respectively. Rates shown are national averages for a conforming 30-year fixed-rate mortgage and do not represent a personal rate quote, commitment to lend, or offer of a specific rate. Buydown examples reflect recent closed transactions and are not guaranteed for future transactions. Payment examples assume a $400,000 loan amount, 30-year fixed term, 20% down payment, and do not include taxes, homeowner's insurance, HOA dues, or private mortgage insurance (PMI). Your actual rate, APR, payment, and costs may vary based on your credit profile, loan amount, property type, occupancy, and other factors. Rate ≠ APR. Not all applicants will qualify. Subject to credit approval.

NMLS Consumer Access: nmlsconsumeraccess.org

Equal Housing Lender.

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