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📊 Every Friday at 6 AM
The Friday Rate Sheet
The rates + the scripts + the texts. Every Friday.
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#8 · APRIL 10, 2026
Rates dropped for the first time in six weeks. A ceasefire was announced. Oil crashed 16% in a single day. And the March CPI report lands this morning. A window cracked open this week. The agents who move through it before it closes are the ones who win spring.
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This Week's Numbers
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30-Year Mortgage Rate (Freddie Mac PMMS®)
6.37% ↓ 0.09% | first decline in six weeks
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Daily rate (Mortgage News Daily, Apr 9)
6.44% dropped to 6.38% Wed on ceasefire, bounced Thu on hot PCE
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What that means on a $400K loan
~$2,494/mo ~$71/mo less than a year ago
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With a seller-funded buydown to ~5%
~$2,145/mo $349/mo less than the headline rate. $4,192/yr in real savings.
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Bond rate that drives mortgages (10-Year Treasury · CNBC)
4.25% ↓ from 4.44% two weeks ago (biggest move since the conflict started)
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Gap between mortgage & bond rates
2.12% still elevated (historical avg: 1.70%)
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⚠️ Next big rate mover: March CPI (captures full oil spike), TODAY 8:30 AM ET
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Source: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), week ending 4/9/2026. Daily rate from Mortgage News Daily. Rates shown are national averages for a conforming 30-year fixed-rate mortgage and do not represent a personal rate quote or offer to lend. Buydown example reflects recent closed transactions and is not guaranteed. Payment examples assume a $400,000 loan amount, 30-year fixed term, 20% down payment, and do not include taxes, insurance, or PMI. Your actual rate, payment, and costs may vary based on your financial profile. Rate ≠ APR. Not all applicants will qualify.
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Your Scripts & Texts for This Week
This week's theme: a window opened. The question is how long it stays open. Your job is to get people through it.
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🗣️ For Calls & Meetings
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What to Say to a Buyer
"[Name], have you been watching the news this week? [Pause. Let them answer.] So here's what actually happened and why it matters for you. A ceasefire was announced Tuesday night. Oil prices crashed 16% in a single day. Mortgage rates dropped for the first time in six weeks. The bond market had its biggest move since the conflict started. Now. I have to be honest with you. This ceasefire is fragile. It's two weeks. Nobody knows if it holds. And the inflation report drops this morning, which could push rates right back up. But here's what I know for certain: 45% of sellers are covering buyer closing costs and rate buydowns right now. That's an all-time record. My mortgage broker is closing deals where buyers are paying hundreds less per month than the headline rate. If there was ever a week to find out where you actually stand, it's this one. Not because I'm telling you to buy today. Because the math might look very different on Monday than it does right now. Can I connect you with my lender for a 15-minute conversation?"
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What to Say to a Seller
"[Name], I know there's been a lot of noise in the market and you're probably thinking it's smarter to wait until things settle down. That makes total sense. But here's what I'd want to know if I were you. This week a ceasefire was announced, and the first thing that happened is buyer activity picked up. When news gets better, buyers come back fast. The problem is that seller inventory comes back too. Right now there are fewer competing listings than there will be in May or June. Home prices nationally are barely growing. They're up less than 1% for the year. That means the advantage you have isn't price appreciation. It's timing against other sellers. If you list in the next few weeks while inventory is still thin, you're in a stronger negotiating position than if you wait until every other seller reads the same ceasefire headline and decides now is the time. Would it make sense to sit down for 15 minutes and look at what's actually happening on your street? Not the national headlines. Your specific neighborhood. And then you can decide if it makes sense for you."
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📱 Copy-Paste Texts
Buyer Nudge (active buyers)
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[Name], something happened this week that hasn't happened in six weeks. Mortgage rates actually went down. A ceasefire was announced, oil crashed, and the whole picture shifted. I don't know how long it lasts. My lender can show you what your numbers look like right now before anything changes again. Worth a call?
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Buyer Sphere (quiet/past leads)
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[Name], did you see what happened with mortgage rates this week?
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Seller Nudge (listing prospects)
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[Name], here's something that sounds backwards. The ceasefire this week is actually a reason to list sooner, not later. When the news gets better, every hesitant seller lists at once. The ones who are already on the market before the wave hits get the attention. Want me to show you how your home stacks up before the competition shows up?
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Sphere (past clients & SOI)
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Hey [name], I watched a client close last week in the middle of all the chaos. Everyone told them to wait. They negotiated a seller buydown and ended up with a payment way below what the news would make you think is possible. If anyone you know has been sitting on the sidelines, this is the kind of deal that's out there right now. Send them my way and I'll take care of them.
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Social Media Post of the Week
Copy this caption. Post with a local neighborhood photo or sold sign. Add your own hashtags.
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Something is happening in [your neighborhood/city] right now that most people don't know about.
While everyone is watching the national headlines about the ceasefire and oil prices and what the Fed might do, the real story is playing out locally. Sellers here are offering concessions they never would have a year ago. Buyers who are showing up are getting deals that would have been laughed at in 2024.
The national news will tell you to wait. The local data tells a different story. The best deals happen when most people are looking the other direction.
What are you seeing in your neighborhood right now?
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Client Forward Block
Copy the section below and forward it to a buyer or seller who needs this week's update.
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Market Update for the Week of April 10, 2026
Some encouraging news this week. Mortgage rates dropped for the first time in six weeks after a ceasefire was announced in the Middle East on Tuesday night. Oil prices fell sharply, and bond markets rallied, both of which tend to push mortgage rates lower.
The ceasefire is temporary (two weeks) and there are ongoing negotiations, so the situation could change. But this was the first real positive movement for rates since late February, and it matters.
What hasn't changed: sellers continue to be more flexible than at any point in the last several years. Nearly half of all home sales now include the seller covering some combination of closing costs and rate buydowns. That means the monthly payment you would actually end up with could be meaningfully lower than what you would expect based on the headlines. If you have been holding off, this might be a good week to have a conversation about what a deal actually looks like right now.
Questions? Reply here and I'll connect you with my team.
This is a general market overview based on national averages from the Freddie Mac PMMS® for the week ending April 9, 2026 and is not an offer to lend. Your actual rate and payment will depend on your individual financial profile. Cole Brantley, NMLS# 1905939. Mpire Financial, NMLS# 2108504. Equal Housing Lender.
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🤖 AI Tip of the Week
Write a "Week in Review" Email Your Sphere Will Actually Read
Big weeks like this one are the perfect time to send a personal email to your sphere that sounds like you, not like a newsletter. Here's how to do it in 90 seconds.
Copy this prompt into Claude or ChatGPT:
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"I'm a real estate agent and I want to send a short personal email to my sphere summarizing what happened in the housing market this week. Here's what happened: rates dropped for the first time in six weeks, a ceasefire was announced overseas, oil prices crashed, and the jobs report came in strong. Write a 4-5 sentence email that sounds like I'm catching up a friend over coffee, not writing a market report. End with one line that invites them to reply if they have questions or know someone thinking about buying or selling. Keep the tone warm, confident, and brief. Do not use em dashes. Do not use words like 'stunning' or 'nestled' or 'boasts.' No exclamation points."
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Send it from your personal email, not your CRM. Use the subject line: "Quick market update." People open emails from people they know. They delete emails from platforms.
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What Moved Rates This Week
The ceasefire. The jobs blowout. The inflation scare. All in one week.
This was the most eventful week for mortgage rates since the conflict began in late February. For the first time in six weeks, the Freddie Mac weekly average actually declined, dropping from 6.46% to 6.37%. But the week was a rollercoaster to get there.
Monday: markets digested the jobs report. The March jobs report (released last Friday to a closed market) showed +178,000 jobs, triple the 59,000 expected. Healthcare rebounded 76,000 as the Kaiser strike resolved. Unemployment dipped to 4.3%. The real story was wages: average hourly earnings grew just 0.2% for the month and 3.5% from a year ago, the slowest pace since May 2021. The strong headline was rate-negative; the cool wages were rate-positive. Net effect: roughly a wash.
Tuesday: the deadline, the brink, and then the breakthrough. Oil hit $117 per barrel intraday as the April 6 deadline loomed. Less than two hours before the 8 PM ET cutoff, a two-week ceasefire was announced, brokered by Pakistan. Both the U.S. and Iran agreed to suspend operations. Iran agreed to allow shipping through the Strait of Hormuz during the truce. Peace talks were scheduled for Islamabad starting tomorrow (Friday, April 10).
Wednesday: the biggest single-day market move of the year. Oil crashed 16% to $94.41 per barrel, the largest one-day drop since 2020. The Dow surged 1,325 points, its best day in a year. The 10-year Treasury yield dropped sharply to around 4.20%. MND mortgage rates fell to about 6.38%. Global markets rallied: Japan +5%, Europe +3.8%. For a few hours, it felt like the worst of the rate pressure might be over.
Thursday: reality check. February PCE inflation came in hotter than expected at 2.8% year over year (economists expected 2.6%). Core PCE held at 3.0%. The 10-year yield bounced back to about 4.32%. Oil recovered to roughly $102 as the ceasefire showed cracks. Israel launched massive strikes in Lebanon, and Iran threatened to leave the truce. The Strait of Hormuz has seen barely any traffic despite the agreement. The ceasefire exists on paper but remains extremely fragile.
What to tell clients who ask: "This was the first positive week for rates in a month and a half. A ceasefire is in place, oil prices dropped, and rates came down. But it's fragile. Nobody knows if it holds past the next two weeks. What I do know is that the negotiating environment for buyers is the strongest it's been in years. If you've been waiting for a sign that the market is shifting, this week was it. Let's look at the numbers before anything changes."
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What This Means for Buyers & Sellers
The ceasefire opened a window. The CPI report this morning could close it.
The March CPI report drops at 8:30 AM today (Friday). This is the first inflation reading that captures the full impact of the oil price spike from the conflict. If it comes in hot, rates could give back everything they gained this week. If it comes in cooler than feared, the ceasefire rally could extend. For agents: do not wait for the data to tell you what to do. Call your clients now. Be the person who prepared them for what's coming, regardless of which way it goes.
The February PCE is scary, and it doesn't even include the worst of the oil spike.
February PCE inflation came in at 2.8% year over year, above the 2.6% forecast. Core PCE held at 3.0%. This is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, and it's still 50% above their 2% target. The part that should concern everyone: February data was collected before the conflict drove oil up 45%+. The March and April readings will be worse. This reinforces the higher-for-longer narrative and makes rate cuts in 2026 even less likely. Markets are pricing in zero cuts and a 25%+ chance of a hike. For your client conversations: don't promise rate relief. The math that works today is the math to sell on. If rates drop later, they refinance.
February was revised to -133,000. That number matters more than the +178,000.
The March jobs headline (+178K) was great. But February was revised down from -92K to -133K. That's the worst single month since the pandemic. The three-month average is only 68K per month, barely above the 30-50K breakeven rate needed to keep unemployment stable. The labor market isn't breaking, but it's not growing. It's in a holding pattern: low layoffs, low hiring. What that means for housing: buyers aren't panicking about job loss, but they're not feeling flush either. Confidence, not employment, is the constraint.
Home prices grew less than 1% nationally. That changes the conversation.
The S&P Case-Shiller index (released this week for January data) showed national prices up just 0.9% year over year, the smallest gain in nearly three years. Wages are now growing faster than home prices for the first time since the post-pandemic recovery. Real home values (adjusted for inflation) have declined for eight straight months. For your buyer conversations, this is a powerful reframe: the total cost of buying includes the price of the home, not just the rate. And home prices are barely moving while negotiating power is at a multi-year high. The math has shifted more than most people realize.
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How to Refer a Client to Me
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Have a client who needs financing? Here's exactly what happens.
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Step 1
Reach out to me first. Text, email, or call me with the client's info and any notes about their situation. The more context upfront, the better I can serve them.
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Step 2
Introduce me in a 3-way text. A group text with you, me, and the client. Something like: "Hey [name], this is Cole Brantley, the mortgage broker I told you about. He's going to reach out to set up a time to talk through your options."
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Step 3
I take it from there. I reach out to the client 7 times over the next 4 days with a mix of phone calls and text messages to set a consultation. After every conversation, I send you a recap of where things stand and what the next steps are.
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Step 4
No one gets forgotten. If the client doesn't respond after the first week, they move into a biweekly follow-up cadence from my call center team. No lead gets dropped.
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Lower-intent client? Just note it in your initial referral and my team follows up on whatever cadence you want.
I specialize in: Purchase | Refinance | VA/FHA | New Construction | Builders | Investors | First-Time Buyers
Cole Brantley | 813-579-8812 | [email protected] | ColeBrantley.com
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That's the Sheet
See you next Friday.
Your weekend assignment is simple: call three people. Not text. Call. One buyer, one seller, one person in your sphere. Tell them what happened this week. The agents who show up with a phone call during a week like this don't just look informed. They look like the agent those people should be working with. Three calls. Do it Saturday morning before the rest of the industry catches up.
Know an agent who could use a Friday cheat sheet? Forward this or share: ColeBrantley.com/friday-rate-sheet/signup
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Disclosures
Cole Brantley | Loan Officer | NMLS# 1905939
Mpire Financial | NMLS# 2108504 | 189 S Orange Ave #2020, Orlando, FL 32801
Rate data sourced from the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®) and Mortgage News Daily, published weekly/daily respectively. Rates shown are national averages for a conforming 30-year fixed-rate mortgage and do not represent a personal rate quote, commitment to lend, or offer of a specific rate. Buydown examples reflect recent closed transactions and are not guaranteed for future transactions. Payment examples assume a $400,000 loan amount, 30-year fixed term, 20% down payment, and do not include taxes, homeowner's insurance, HOA dues, or private mortgage insurance (PMI). Your actual rate, APR, payment, and costs may vary based on your credit profile, loan amount, property type, occupancy, and other factors. Rate ≠ APR. Not all applicants will qualify. Subject to credit approval.
NMLS Consumer Access: nmlsconsumeraccess.org
Equal Housing Lender.
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